Thailand reports record high 18,901 new COVID-19 cases

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Update-1] The Ministry of Public Health denies that any Pfizer shipment has been sent to Buriram, despite allegations from a ministry source that says a small batch was sent to the province.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1422550339815944198

 

Lies beget more lies, whom to believe.

[Nojohndoe]

12 hours ago, steven100 said:

Numbers high everywhere .... Italy recorded it's at highest, UK, US  and so on .....  

Absolutely devastating effects worldwide ..... 

and if it's proven that CHINA IS TO BLAME  .......   what next ?   what will be done   ?     PUNISH   ?   how   ? 

And if it is proven that China is not to blame.......what then? Or if it  can not  be proven China is to  blame.....what then? Or if it is proven the source originated  outside China....what then?

The blame game is irrelevant to the ongoing issue of the stark reality that "what is" need be dealt with while at the same time rationally establishing source so as to avert ,if possible, a repeat of circumstance and outcome  regardless of human error or product of nature.

Blame is unproductive and antagonistic and invites a similar response which does nothing to establish truth but assists in the convenience of political priorities !

 

 

[riparian]

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Lies beget more lies, whom to believe.

But why wouldn't they send Pfizer to Buriram?  There are front line health workers there too.

 

[The Hammer2021]

12 hours ago, steven100 said:

Numbers high everywhere .... Italy recorded it's at highest, UK, US  and so on .....  

Absolutely devastating effects worldwide ..... 

and if it's proven that CHINA IS TO BLAME  .......   what next ?   what will be done   ?     PUNISH   ?   how   ? 

UK not recording its highest. You are mistaken. China is recording its highest for some time. What punishment do you propose for China? And whom? The people, the government, army ,police or Communist party. China like the USA are too big and too powerful to punish. Even N Korea is impossible to punish.

[Bkk Brian]

Here's the latest estimates of the true number of covid cases in Thailand from the "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)" taken from Ourworldindata.

 

If you take the mean estimate we can see it is around 70,000 per day.

 

"A key limitation in our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic is that we do not know the true number of infections. Instead, we only know of infections that have been confirmed by a test – the confirmed cases. But because many infected people never get tested,2 we know that confirmed cases are only a fraction of true infections. How small a fraction though?

To answer this question, several research groups have developed epidemiological models of COVID-19. These models use the data we have – confirmed cases and deaths, testing rates, and more – plus a range of assumptions and epidemiological knowledge to estimate true infections and other important metrics."

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models#institute-for-health-metrics-and-evaluation-ihme

[impulse]

12 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The Thais still don't seem to be getting the joke about COVID, at least in Chonburi. 

 

Markets still open, people mingling around each other, little or no control of movement in and out the province. 

Perhaps they're taking a cue from anti-shutdown protesters in the UK, Aus, France, Italy, Germany, the USA...and...and... who want their lives back.  And their jobs.

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by impulse

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, cocoonclub said:

What’s with all the fuss about breakthrough cases? The vaccine is intended to protect you from severe illness. If it also prevents/reduces contracting and/or transmitting the virus—great, but as long as it provides protection against severe illness I’m happy with that because it will allow us to live with the virus and then take it from there. And based on the data we have, the vaccines provide excellent protection against severe illness, even with Delta. 
 

On a side note, the yearly influenza vaccination sees 40-50% breakthrough cases. And I don’t think anyone has ever heard of the term breakthrough case before. 
 

On another side note, most other vaccines that are in routine use today do not achieve sterilising immunity either. And still many of those have achieved to eradicate a pathogen completely. Yet suddenly everyone is making a fuss about the fact that the Covid vaccines don’t provide sterilising immunity.

 

So as serious as the current situation is, we should also appreciate the fact that we managed to come up with excellent vaccines in record time and the more and more people get vaccinated the more we will get back to what can be considered “normal”.  So while I appreciate the seriousness of the situation, I don’t share the doomsayers thinking. If we keep vaccinating and implementing restrictions, then, ceteris paribus, we will hopefully be able to live a somewhat normal life again next year. 
 

 

The fuss is about planning, planning for boosters, planning for updated vaccine development, planning for the future of living with breakthroughs and how that will be done.

[sezze]

16 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

UK not recording its highest. You are mistaken. China is recording its highest for some time. What punishment do you propose for China? And whom? The people, the government, army ,police or Communist party. China like the USA are too big and too powerful to punish. Even N Korea is impossible to punish.

Why punish ? Punishment is only needed if it was released on purpose ( like bio weapon ) . Trying to find the origin of the virus is needed , since it might learn us for future , like they do with airplane crashes . It is not sure at all that the origin of the virus is Wuhan, China . The only thing which is pretty sure is that it was the 1st outbreak , creating havoc .

And it isn't fair that big countries cannot be punished , since it creates a arms race which is totally unneeded . If all countries would talk same , meaning try find origin and learn for future , even if it did escape from lab ( can be , but far from sure ) , then see where the issues are and why it would have happened and try fix things . This is no blame game ... it is a new virus , like many others before , only this made it to pandemic lvl , it isn't the 1st and it won't be the last .

[brewsterbudgen]

13 minutes ago, impulse said:

Perhaps they're taking a cue from anti-shutdown protesters in the UK, Aus, France, Italy, Germany, the USA...and...and... who want their lives back.  And their jobs.

 

The current protests in Bangkok still seem to be entirely political in nature and a continuation of the anti-government protests pre the pandemic.  It will be interesting to see, if the lockdown continues, whether they morph into anti-lockdown protests like those in UK, Australia etc.

[riparian]

29 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here's the latest estimates of the true number of covid cases in Thailand from the "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)" taken from Ourworldindata.

 

If you take the mean estimate we can see it is around 70,000 per day.

 

"A key limitation in our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic is that we do not know the true number of infections. Instead, we only know of infections that have been confirmed by a test – the confirmed cases. But because many infected people never get tested,2 we know that confirmed cases are only a fraction of true infections. How small a fraction though?

To answer this question, several research groups have developed epidemiological models of COVID-19. These models use the data we have – confirmed cases and deaths, testing rates, and more – plus a range of assumptions and epidemiological knowledge to estimate true infections and other important metrics."

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models#institute-for-health-metrics-and-evaluation-ihme

 

Is that exponential?

 

[Bkk Brian]

Phuket asks to vaccinate 12- to 18-year-olds

“The Prime Minister has already acknowledged the request,” he added.

“The request also includes the vaccine doses to be given as the ‘third’ dose for Phuket people. However, the request will be discussed again at a meeting of the main CCSA committee later,” Mr Phiphat said..

The move to have teenagers in Phuket vaccinated follows the state mass vaccination campaign in Phuket grinding to a halt, with very little progress over the past month.

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-asks-to-vaccinate-12-to-18-year-olds-80912.php

[DrJack54]

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

“The request also includes the vaccine doses to be given as the ‘third’ dose for Phuket people

What's so special about Phuket folk.

 

Oh I forgot that's the place with sandbox. Hardly a success story. 

70% vaccination (not really) at a cost of vaccination of the more vulnerable in rest of Thailand.

Edited August 3, 2021 by DrJack54

[ExpatOilWorker]

#41

Covid Resilience Ranking: The Best and Worst Places to Be in 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/?utm_source=line

[superal]

14 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The Thais still don't seem to be getting the joke about COVID, at least in Chonburi. 

 

Markets still open, people mingling around each other, little or no control of movement in and out the province. 

 

Masks and gels will only go so far. They need to understand to stay away from other people. Period. 

 

I barked at a guy for breathing down my neck in the 7/11 yesterday. Why can't they STAY AWAY from other people!?! Especially strangers! 

 

Current measures do not seem to be effective so either tighten up or rethink the strategy as we are at a tipping point into total chaos at the moment. 

We know there is very little social distancing but very much chin warming masks . Indeed it is the perfect storm for spreading the virus . Every time you venture outdoors you're putting yourself in danger of getting the virus through close people contact , touching anything on the shelves in shops , or money in any form ,  door handles and atm buttons etc . Also the virus can hold in your hair , clothes and shoes . Staying at home is safer and get someone to do your shopping and sanitize all goods before storing in your house . The world is aware of being cautious against the virus but the number of new daily cases suggest that the prolific virus spreads in other ways and one report I read recently said a new study shows the virus is airborne . Staying in your house is the safe way and there should be a national lockdown to stop the spread but maybe the economy is more important ?

[meltonpie]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The reason is that there are a large amount of people vaccinated, not because it is summer and infections have a history of falling.  Covid still is running rampant, especially the Delta variant. So lets try again

Which is precisely what I said.

Need to give your glasses a clean? ????

[jerrymahoney]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

The fuss is about planning, planning for boosters, planning for updated vaccine development, planning for the future of living with breakthroughs and how that will be done.

About 99.999% of fully vaccinated Americans have not had a deadly COVID-19 breakthrough case: CDC
CNNWire    
Tuesday, August 3, 2021 1:45AM

More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The data highlights what leading health experts across the country have highlighted for months: Covid-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death from Covid-19 and are the country's best shot at slowing the pandemic down and avoiding further suffering.
https://abc7.com/covid-breakthrough-cdc-data/10923757/

[Blumpie]

4 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

About 99.999% of fully vaccinated Americans have not had a deadly COVID-19 breakthrough case: CDC
CNNWire    
Tuesday, August 3, 2021 1:45AM

More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The data highlights what leading health experts across the country have highlighted for months: Covid-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death from Covid-19 and are the country's best shot at slowing the pandemic down and avoiding further suffering.
https://abc7.com/covid-breakthrough-cdc-data/10923757/

Zero sympathy from anyone who refuses a shot.  I don't wish bad things on them, don't get me wrong.  But the sympathy factor is about a resounding zero.  

[Bkk Brian]

18 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

About 99.999% of fully vaccinated Americans have not had a deadly COVID-19 breakthrough case: CDC
CNNWire    
Tuesday, August 3, 2021 1:45AM

More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The data highlights what leading health experts across the country have highlighted for months: Covid-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death from Covid-19 and are the country's best shot at slowing the pandemic down and avoiding further suffering.
https://abc7.com/covid-breakthrough-cdc-data/10923757/

As I said its about planning. Israel started boosters on Sunday. The UK starts Sept. Thailand starting next week for health workers. Germany also starts Sept.

Pfizer itself said boosters needed after 12 months.

 

Why do you think they are doing that? 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[jerrymahoney]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

As I said its about planning. Israel started boosters on Sunday. The UK starts Sept. Thailand starting next week for health workers. Why do you think they are doing that?

because maybe vaccine effects decay not because of breakthroughs

 

Israel to Offer Covid-19 Booster Shots to Elderly as Delta Cases Rise
Early data suggest vaccine protection against severe illness has waned; ‘we see people that are hospitalized that were vaccinated, although the risk is lower’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-to-offer-pfizer-booster-shots-to-elderly-as-delta-cases-rise-11627585878

 

If more than 99.99% of fully vaccinated do not have breakthrough, then that is likely not the reason.

Edited August 3, 2021 by jerrymahoney

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

because maybe vaccine effects decay not because of breakthroughs

 

Israel to Offer Covid-19 Booster Shots to Elderly as Delta Cases Rise
Early data suggest vaccine protection against severe illness has waned; ‘we see people that are hospitalized that were vaccinated, although the risk is lower’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-to-offer-pfizer-booster-shots-to-elderly-as-delta-cases-rise-11627585878

 

If more than 99.99% of fully vaccinated do not have breakthrough, then that is likely not the reason.

The effects of vaccine decay will lend itself to even more breakthroughs. However maybe you missed my earlier post on this as I'm not going to repeat the same so here's a copy for you:

 

Israel is leading the research and real time statistics into this and leading the world, not the US. 

 

Your opinion on vaccine breakthroughs is logical and correct according to them, its pure science. Israel vaccinated nearly exclusively with pfizer and have as a result shared their data real time in their dashboard here https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general

 

Its very usefull to know what the potential is for breakthroughs as it guides policy for future planning. They now publish all hospital admissions in real time in categories, vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated. 

 

For example:

 

For seriously ill cases in hospital on Saturday: Raw figures and per 100k

Age <60:

- Unvaccinated: 977 (28.6)

- Partially: 37 (14.2)

- Vaccinated: 829 (19.8)

 

Age 60+:

- Unvaccinated: 20 (21.2)

- Partially: 2 (9.1)

- Vaccinated: 220 (16.8)

 

However that needs lots of context. 

 

Pfizer wanes with time and the highest number of vaccinated patients is in the over 60's, they were the ones that had the vaccine jabs first, months ago. They are also now from last Sunday going to get boosters.

 

Anyway plenty of context with numbers and opinions in this twitter thread. 

 

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1421934915776663554

 

Another useful article here https://www.israel21c.org/covid-and-pfizer-what-has-israel-discovered-so-far/

[thaichina]

6 hours ago, steven100 said:

we can only hope ....

Why would you hope the virus expands in China? Please enlighten me.

[Scott]

Inflammatory post reported and removed.

 

[laislica]

6 hours ago, cocoonclub said:

Where do you see lies? It’s absolutely logical. 

It's a quote that means statistics  can't be trusted. 

[cocoonclub]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

The fuss is about planning, planning for boosters, planning for updated vaccine development, planning for the future of living with breakthroughs and how that will be done.

As I wrote before, breakthroughs were expected and not the primary target. Most of the vaccines work well and as intended. 

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, cocoonclub said:

As I wrote before, breakthroughs were expected and not the primary target. Most of the vaccines work well and as intended. 

Yes they were expected and yes most covid vaccines work well to stop deaths and serious illness. However as per your previous flu jab ecample we need to learn to live with breakthroughs

 That takes planning and health initatives to do so not knee jerk reactions.

[impulse]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Pfizer itself said boosters needed after 12 months.

 

Why do you think they are doing that? 

Because that's how their executives get their bonuses.

 

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-eyes-higher-covid-19-vaccine-prices-after-pandemic-exec-analyst

[cocoonclub]

38 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

as per your previous flu jab ecample we need to learn to live with breakthroughs

 That takes planning and health initatives to do so not knee jerk reactions.

Yes, I think the endgame cannot be complete eradication of this virus but to live with it in a way that is bearable. My hope would be that everyone who can get vaccinated will get vaccinated so that more than enough people are protected to the extent that drastic measures will not be required anymore. 

[rainham]

The Vaccination rollout has been a great success in the UK,  its the only way out of this awful situation lockdowns have a very limited effect on containing the virus, just delays the inevitable I'm really proud of the scientists around the world that worked tirelessly to develop a vaccine in short order and especially  Astra Zenica the only company in the world as far as I'm  aware that are not making a profit out of this terrible virus 

[Marvin Hagler]

7 hours ago, riparian said:

But why wouldn't they send Pfizer to Buriram?  There are front line health workers there too.

 

It won’t be the frontline workers who get it though…that’s the point…you need to read through the lines

[jerrymahoney]

CDC Scaled Back Hunt for Breakthrough Cases Just as the Delta Variant Grew
Bloomberg identified more than 100,000 vaccine breakthroughs

 

July 31, 2021, 1:56 AM GMT+7 EXCERPT  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-30/cdc-scaled-back-hunt-for-breakthrough-cases-just-as-the-delta-variant-grew

 

While a similarly small proportion of vaccine breakthroughs was seen in clinical trials of the shots, state health officials said it was important to know how many are happening, how severe they are, and if they’re getting more common. 

 

Severe cases of disease in vaccinated people remain rare. Only 6,587 people in the U.S. have been hospitalized or died with Covid-19 after being fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. New York state’s Department of Health has identified 11,025 vaccine breakthrough cases as of July 19. The proportion of breakthrough cases remains tiny — about 0.18% of vaccinated people. But department spokeswoman Samantha Fuld said that following the cases is a crucial part of public health vigilance.