Baht could sink even further, analyst warns

[chilli42]

Since the input cost of most things we consume in Thailand is priced in US dollars do you really think price increases/inflation won’t eat away that temporary favorable gain in foreign exchange?  The only gain I can see is if you have Baht debt and you are paying this off with money from overseas or if you are living off government subsidized commodities.   

[driver52]

2 hours ago, Never Been Abroad said:

What's the cheapest way to change my pounds into Baht?

open a revolut account, you can hold other currencies including Baht

[driver52]

55 minutes ago, mickyr55 said:

Why is it a good thing?? prices are rising faster than the Bhatt is falling

yeah thanks to the dumb yankees there are circa 50% more dollars than 18 months ago, mind you other CBs just follow suit so please don't get too triggered 'American friends' ????

[Chris HIckson]

When I first went to Thailand in 2008  it was 67tbt to the pound and prior to the bank crisis. During my short stay I had decided on buying a car which was £12,000. When I returned a couple of months later the Pound had devalued by 20% and I had to pay £16,000.  That was the time when problems really started for the Pound among other currencies (but not the baht) and although the Pound did recover a little, Brexit caused another fall. Later this year I am planning to make some purchases which will be much lower in price not only due to the fall of the baht but also due to the dire situation that Thai citizens are in and having to sell cheaply. Feeling a little uncomfortable?  Yes.                   

Edited August 5, 2021 by Chris HIckson

[Scott Tracy]

Is this the same analyst that said the Thai Baht would be 26 to the dollar some time ago?

[Silencer]

7 hours ago, tonray said:

Very true. I think the best approach is almost the reverse of dollar cost averaging in investment. Move money over (if needed) periodically instead of waiting for the big thrust downward...which may or may not arrive. Downsides are additional fees but these days fees are quite low for xfers, either thru WISE or some brokers like Schwab ($15 per transfer regardless of amount)

That's my approach. While hoping for a bigger fall, I can't let the 10% gain pass me by. So I recently moved some money last week. Waiting to see if we get to 34.5/35, and will move some more. Wait and see what happens longer term. Much more peace of mind this way. 

[bullseye66]

I'm just amazed it hasn't fallen further, quicker.

[MrJ2U]

7 hours ago, jesimps said:

In the 14 years I've lived here I've never noticed the prices go down.

Thai wife says the same. 

 

 

I noticed that my dog's dogfood at Tescos jumped 200 baht for 10kg bag of SmartHeart.  Over 700 baht.

 

Still same price at Big C though.

 

[choff56]

4 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Indeed.

And people say Thais lack critical thinking skills.

[GroveHillWanderer]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

That was Thai baht steady rise over the last 10 years (with a few spikes drops here and there)

I don't think a steady rise of the baht was the reason why the pound literally dropped off a cliff the day after Brexit happened and continued to plummet for the next several months.

 

In case you've forgotten, here's a graph showing this. The precipitous drop you see is the day after the Brexit vote.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[dave moir]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Finding it hard to think of a good reason as to why this is not a bad thing

Good thing for us Farang!????

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and replies about Brexit have been removed.

[smedly]

34 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I don't think a steady rise of the baht was the reason why the pound literally dropped off a cliff the day after Brexit happened and continued to plummet for the next several months.

the result of uncertainty which has now largely been removed which is why sterling is now steady and creeping higher - I personally didn't expect otherwise

[In Full Agreement]

12 hours ago, ezzra said:

Yeah just my luck to be holding a cr*p loads of them in the bank right now...

 

If you find them too burdensome, I'll gladly take them off your hands.      ????

[In Full Agreement]

2 hours ago, Scott Tracy said:

Is this the same analyst that said the Thai Baht would be 26 to the dollar some time ago?

 

Is there more than one analysis in Thailand?

 

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Baht depreciate and caused imported inflation on most products to rise. Doesn't this cancelled out the euphoria of receiving better returns on remittance. 

No. Because inflation is already very high. 

[Stubby]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, oil prices aren't that influential in respect to inflation anymore. There have been huge improvements in efficiency since the the 80's.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/oilpricesinflation.asp

Fair point, but they can still sting the at the pumps and affect all that everyday stuff we buy made with petroleum. I'm surprised price fixing is allowed, though. But I guess the oil producers get to call the shots seeing as well over 100 nations depend on them.

[Mike k]

11 hours ago, Caldera said:

I'd like to see 40 THB per USD. Seems a bit out of reach still, but hey, once on the move things often just steamroll on.

I just wish it would have happened last week 

[MadMuhammad]

11 hours ago, Henryford said:

The economic gurus on Youtube are always saying the dollar is about to collapse but no sign of it yet despite the trillions being printed.

YouTube 'gurus'.  I like that one

[fredscats]

10 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

Some Thais have debts, but in latest figures I can find end 2020 less tahn USA or UK as a %of GDP, Government external debt is also far lower. Of course teh Covid economic hit will not help and it is a matter of concern as many people have very little safety net of welfare, savings or saleable assets.

 

Country	Last	Previous	Reference	Unit
Switzerland	133	131	Dec/20	%
Australia	124	123	Dec/20	%
Norway	115	113	Dec/20	%
Denmark	112	111	Dec/20	%
Canada	112	113	Mar/21	%
Netherlands	105	104	Dec/20	%
South Korea	104	101	Dec/20	%
New Zealand	97.6	95.1	Dec/20	%
Sweden	95.3	93.7	Dec/20	%
Hong Kong	91.2	88.1	Dec/20	%
United Kingdom	90	88.5	Dec/20	%
United States	79.5	77.8	Dec/20	%
Thailand	77.8	75.5	Dec/20	%
Malaysia	76.4	74.6	Dec/20	%
Luxembourg	70.8	70	Dec/20	%
Finland	69.3	68.6	Dec/20	%
France	68.7	67.2	Dec/20	%
Portugal	68.3	67.2	Dec/20	%
Belgium	67.7	66.4	Dec/20	%
Japan	65.3	64.4	Dec/20

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/households-debt-to-gdp

Thailand is 92% at the mo

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, smedly said:

sorry but that is total nonsense, to get a true picture of any one currency you have to compare it with several other major currencies and throw the Thai baht into the mix, a good example would be the EURO and US Dollar - sterling has been on a steady rise since OCT 2019 - that is a fact

And is nowhere near its value against the dollar or euro pre brexit.

Or its value against the baht.

[smedly]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

And is nowhere near its value against the dollar or euro pre brexit.

Or its value against the baht.

maybe so but it is heading in the right direction, large currencies do not make huge moves unless the is a dramatic reason for it - strong and steady is good

 

I have to laugh at some Scottish people who fail to realise the trading figures for their own country - 60% within the UK - 23% the world - 17% EU - hard pill to swallow - and for disclosue I am not English

[Falang in Thailand]

Thailand has over 240 billion usd in Foreign exchange reserves  which it can use  gradually in small amounts  to stimulate the economy , back in 1997 it had only 25 billion USD  so couldnt interfere in the market which led to the Thai Baht depreciate to 50 baht   , i am not saying in the short term  Baht will not depreciate further maybe 34 to max 35 , however dont bet on a huge depreciation .

[tomacht8]

I am very sure that the baht will continue to decline in value. Clearly the US and also the EU are busy printing money, but if the money is quickly distributed among the needy population, there will be an immediate demand for consumer products. And if the state then properly taxes the online sellers, the money comes in again. In Thailand the wave of economic slump will continue. In addition to those employed in tourism with now 0 income and the failure of the demand for consumer products, and the loss of income from landlords, the third wave will now affect production. People have no money to buy cars, cell phones, computers, motorcycles, fashion. Loans for condos, houses, cars, motorbikes and insurance will also be difficult to obtain. The fourth wave will then be tax shortfalls and bank failures. The army generals do not fully understand this. If you want to exchange foreign currency for Thai Baht now, you should wait and see.

Edited August 5, 2021 by tomacht8

[thailand49]

 I think the baht has always been put on a pedestal I say enjoy while it last it is what goes around comes around!  I try to keep my life style the same whether it is high or low right now any extra goes into a hiding place for a rainy day.  You just don't know when someone turns your head by calling out " where you going handsome man "????

Edited August 5, 2021 by thailand49

[david555]

Until the moment some Thai bright light says ...." let's compensate and make the 800K in bank 1000 000 or 1.200 000 baht ret. ext. deposit and its compensated....

 and so finish with the temporary fun ????

[smedly]

13 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

It made a huge move after the referendum result.

And its still no-where near what it was before.

and ?

 

sterling and the Euro have been trading between 75 and 85 for years - it is within it's normal range now and like I already said - strengthening 

 

you can argue all you want about nothing 

 

As for the Thai Baht - it has been strengthening against all currencies for years and only now is it weakening 

[smedly]

14 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

 I think the baht has always been put on a pedestal I say enjoy while it last it is what goes around comes around!  I try to keep my life style the same whether it is high or low right now any extra goes into a hiding place for a rainy day.  You just don't know when someone turns your head by calling out " where you going handsome man "????

I hold sterling in an FCD account exchanged at 42, I may change it back to Thai baht soon, originally changed from sterling to baht at 55 - not bad for just sitting there   55 - 42 - maybe 48, see when I want to pull the trigger, nice little earner for me  

Edited August 5, 2021 by smedly

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

and ?

 

sterling and the Euro have been trading between 75 and 85 for years - it is within it's normal range now and like I already said - strengthening 

 

you can argue all you want about nothing 

 

As for the Thai Baht - it has been strengthening against all currencies for years and only now is it weakening 

Is the pound back to its level v the euro prior to the referendum?

Yes or no.

Is the pound back to its level v the dollar prior to the referendum?

Yes or no.

As for the strengthening baht. Is the pound back to pre brexit levels?

Yes or no.

 

 

[Rookiescot]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

I hold sterling in an FCD account exchanged at 42, I may change it back to Thai baht soon, originally changed from sterling to baht at 55 - not bad for just sitting there   55 - 42 - maybe 48, see when I want to pull the trigger, nice little earner for me  

Would have been a better earner when the pound is sitting at 60 though wouldnt it.

Still. You got what you voted for.