Reopening Thailand decision raises questions over testing capacity

[Jonathan Fairfield]

 

Judging by the online response, Thais remain divided over the decision, announced by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, to allow foreign travellers to enter the country from November 1st, provided they are fully vaccinated, test negative for COVID-19 and arrive from one of the countries on the government’s approved list.

 

Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day, how health officials would be able to administer such a large number of RT-PCR tests effectively.

 

With just under 3 weeks to go, daily new COVID-19 infections in Thailand so far this month are averaging 10,574.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/reopening-thailand-decision-raises-questions-over-testing-capacity/

 

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[Cake Monster]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day, how health officials would be able to administer such a large number of RT-PCR tests effectively.

Its not a question of having the capacity to do all this testing, its a willingness to do so.

So far testing has appeared to be on the back burner.

 

[Mavideol]

16 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

With just under 3 weeks to go, daily new COVID-19 infections in Thailand so far this month are averaging 10,574.

but they are not concerned with infections and/or deaths, they have never been, their mainly and only concern is $$$$$$$$$$$$$ not their citizens safety

Edited October 12, 2021 by Mavideol

[Cherrytreeview]

Bit worrying that Thai's are divided about having foreign tourists back.

For a country with a 20% GDP dependency on tourism you think they might be a bit more welcoming.

Hardly encouraging people to return.

Cheers.

[GeorgeCross]

2 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day..

trust me.. that won't be a problem ????

 

[BKKTRAVELER]

23 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

trust me.. that won't be a problem ????

 

That!

[RichardColeman]

It's the exact reason why we need to stop all this daft testing. Should be either flash your vaccine card to your airline at check-in or do a 15minute flow test at the airport, any more that that now is just holding back society and the economy.

[RotBenz8888]

2 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

decision, announced by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, to allow foreign travellers to enter the country from November 1st, 

Decision? He have instructed the CCSA and health authorities to  CONSIDER. The most wishy-washy decision I ever heard of. 

[internationalism]

100k tourists per day was pre-covid amf from over 200 countries around the world.

now expectation can be only in thousands per day (judging by around 100 per day to phuket sandbox - after exclusion from total all expats, businessmen and thai repatriates).

Surely if they would still charge from 2700 to 5k per test, there is big profit margin and large income for the state.

Would give proper employment to hundreds of medics and ground airport staff doing 3 shifts at airports  

[RichardColeman]

2 minutes ago, internationalism said:

100k tourists per day was pre-covid amf from over 200 countries around the world.

now expectation can be only in thousands per day

I would imagine that if the arrivals add up to just 2000 tourists a day after 'opening', the whole opening will be deigned a failure and them come up with a new enticement plan.

[Eric Loh]

That is whole lot of needless assumption by Dr. Annan that 100,000 tourists will arrive in 1 airport at the same time. Thailand has 6 major international airports and the arrivals are scattered throughout the day. Possible for airports to designate holding/testing areas for arrivals with RT-PCR testing and have results in less than an hour. RT-PCR test is the standard testing method for all airports. 

[Chad3000]

Never thought of this.

 

Yeah, 5m tourists all waiting for their stupid PCR test they need x hours before boarding. Gonna work out swell. They want 40m tourists back?  Lol.

 

After awhile it will become onsite preboarding. ATK. The nurses will be so blase about it the effort will be treated as poorly as when they take my blood pressure.

 

The only criteria will be payment. Get em on the plane and gone!

[BangkokReady]

4 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day, how health officials would be able to administer such a large number of RT-PCR tests effectively.

If you're worrying about this then there's no point in opening up.  Need to concentrate on vaccination and learn to live with covid.  No restrictions and treat it like the flu, or there won't be any tourists, or at least only nature overs.

 

No one is going to come if they are treated like a leper while they are here (a leper people want to price gouge), with the constant threat of being incarcerated at your expense.

[Cherrytreeview]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

That is whole lot of needless assumption by Dr. Annan that 100,000 tourists will arrive in 1 airport at the same time. Thailand has 6 major international airports and the arrivals are scattered throughout the day. Possible for airports to designate holding/testing areas for arrivals with RT-PCR testing and have results in less than an hour. RT-PCR test is the standard testing method for all airports. 

You don't get out much. That's not a surprise by most of your comments.

You ever arrived in BKK immigration hall when the Russians or Chinese have just arrived?

Add on document checking and swabs stuck up various orrifices and i'd like to see the queues generated.

Chaos would be to kind a word. Not Thailand's fault but a logistical nightmare for any country.

 

 

[Farangus]

What 100K is this person talking about?
It will be a great success to fill the plane with up to 250 passengers in the world after Covid. Does that mean they expect 400 tourist flights a day?
I think this is too optimistic. Moreover, the routes are usually agreed in advance and the Thai authorities can already see which airlines are planning flights to Thailand. They can also limit this amount if necessary (but I think that this will not be necessary).

[The Hammer2021]

7 hours ago, Mavideol said:

but they are not concerned with infections and/or deaths, they have never been, their mainly and only concern is $$$$$$$$$$$$$ not their citizens safety

Nonsense. If that was the case they would have opened up months ago.

[The Hammer2021]

7 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Bit worrying that Thai's are divided about having foreign tourists back.

For a country with a 20% GDP dependency on tourism you think they might be a bit more welcoming.

Hardly encouraging people to return.

Cheers.

The Thais know what happened in the UK. Fair enough for them putting health over wealth. Nobody want foreigners back here except those dependant on the tourist trade

[richard_smith237]

It is perhaps a valid concern however Dr. Anan makes the flawed assumption that from 1st Nov over night the tourism will return to its former numbers - This alone makes him one of the many in positions of potential influence who failed to think before the ‘spoke out’.

 

Thailand will not see 100,000 tourist each day for a long time. 

 

Thailand also needs to recognise that fully vaccinated tourists who have taken a pre-flight PCR test pose very little threat. 

 

It is still the local population which present the greatest threat, the only solution is to concentrate on the vaccination efforts with ‘effective’ vaccines. 

 

 

Those in positions of power need to grow up and stop trying to pin the blame on everyone else.

 

Concentrate 100% of their efforts on vaccines and open up to tourism - closely watch the only metric which now matters: ‘necessary hospitalisation’ and ‘deaths’. 

 

Positive cases are primarily irrelevant to the bigger picture when testing is so very hit-and-miss and a minute percentage of the population is being tested on a regular basis.

 

A valid and real picture of the extent of infection cannot be achieved with the irregularity of testing as it currently stands - it's a waste of time. The current manner in which testing is planed and carried out can be manipulated to cause panic or confidence and is thus being used as a political tool.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nattaya09]

"..Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day, how health officials would be able to administer such a large number of RT-PCR tests effectively."

 

And If the quality of the administration of the tests is suspect, how does that affect the false positive rate?

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

The Thais know what happened in the UK. Fair enough for them putting health over wealth. Nobody want foreigners back here except those dependant on the tourist trade

Thats because they are 'ignorantly xenophobic’ in light of covid fears. 

 

They are uneducated as to the minimal risk presented by fully vaccinated arrivals who’ve tested negative for covid in the past 72 hrs. As are you it seems. 

 

The Sandbox experiment in Phuket highlighted the minimal risk of transmission from vaccinated international arrivals compared. 

 

 

 

[The Hammer2021]

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Thats because they are 'ignorantly xenophobic’ in light of covid fears. 

 

They are uneducated as to the minimal risk presented by fully vaccinated arrivals who’ve tested negative for covid in the past 72 hrs. As are you it seems. 

 

The Sandbox experiment in Phuket highlighted the minimal risk of transmission from vaccinated international arrivals compared. 

 

 

 

You sound like the ignorant, xenophobe. Its not your business. Most Thais dont want or need foreigners here. Most Thais have nothing to do with foreigners except in Phuket, Pattaya, CM,CR, Bangkok...Your ignorance of Thailand is matched by your arrogance. Furthermore: the foreigners I know who live here dont want to see foreigners returning apart from those in the tourist trade.

[Meat Pie 47]

7 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

You sound like the ignorant, xenophobe. Its not your business. Most Thais dont want or need foreigners here. Most Thais have nothing to do with foreigners except in Phuket, Pattaya, CM,CR, Bangkok...Your ignorance of Thailand is matched by your arrogance. Furthermore: the foreigners I know who live here dont want to see foreigners returning apart from those in the tourist trade.

Get your facts right

[richard_smith237]

37 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

You sound like the ignorant, xenophobe. Its not your business. Most Thais dont want or need foreigners here. Most Thais have nothing to do with foreigners except in Phuket, Pattaya, CM,CR, Bangkok...Your ignorance of Thailand is matched by your arrogance. Furthermore: the foreigners I know who live here dont want to see foreigners returning apart from those in the tourist trade.

Yet you consider you speak for 70 million people. 

 

You seem to have become upset with the use of the term ‘ignorantly xenophobic’... I’ll explain the term for you... Apologies if you think that is also arrogant (I’ll explain arrogance for you as well if you like). 

 

Ignorant: - lack of knowledge or information.

Xenophobic: - fear of that which is considered foreign.

 

Thai’s are concerned that foreign arrivals will bring in more Covid-19, this is because they lack knowledge or the information that this is not true.  They are of the misunderstanding that they are at risk from ‘foreigners’ and are therefore fearful of foreigners entering Thailand (this is where the prejudice may come in). 

 

Thus: while ‘ignorantly xenophobic’ may appear harsh because of the manner in which both words are often used, they are simply a matter of fact manner of indicating that fears exist because people do not have a handle on the facts. 

 

The foreigners you know would also seem ‘ignorantly xenophobic’ - in this case the xenophobic facet means fearful and prejudice towards ‘outsiders’ while considering themselves insiders. 

 

I can’t help who you hang around with our how uneducated they are... but I can help you understand that you are at far greater risk of catching Covid-19 from Nong while passing her in 7-11, who has just returned from the market, compared to Jeff who arrived in Thailand last week, is fully vaccinated and has had 4 negative covid tests in the last two weeks.

Thus, the greatest importance has to be placed on vaccinating Thailands population, while at the same time recognising that vaccinated arrivals do not present risk to the local populations and thus there is no need for the continued kneecapping of a major income source for the nation and a vast proportion of its population.

 

 

You and your friends living on a retirement income may not care, neither may the Thai’s who are unaffected by the devastation in the tourism industry and its knock-on effect.... However, an estimated 7 million jobs have been impacted, an industry which makes up 20% of Thailands GDP has been devastated - Sooner or later the pieces of this devastation fall wider and spread further.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by richard_smith237

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, nattaya09 said:

"..Virologist Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana asked, if 100,000 foreign tourists arrive in Thailand in a day, how health officials would be able to administer such a large number of RT-PCR tests effectively."

 

And If the quality of the administration of the tests is suspect, how does that affect the false positive rate?

The false positive rate in the world (outside of Thailand which has reported a full false and true positive rate in the sandbox of 0.17%) is 0.4-0.7%. See article below. If 100k people arrive each day and the false pos rate is 0.4%, then 400 people a day will be shipped off to mandatory 14-day quarantine. 

 

https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

[Cherrytreeview]

46 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

You sound like the ignorant, xenophobe. Its not your business. Most Thais dont want or need foreigners here. Most Thais have nothing to do with foreigners except in Phuket, Pattaya, CM,CR, Bangkok...Your ignorance of Thailand is matched by your arrogance. Furthermore: the foreigners I know who live here dont want to see foreigners returning apart from those in the tourist trade.

Classy.

@richard_smith237 put it very eloquently. Described it in a very measured way.

I'm not so measured.

How many Thai's will you and your penny pinching chums help support?

Versus the 40 million visitors that supported 20% of Thai GDP pre covid.

Might i politely suggest you take your bigoted, poisonous, selfish, odious and bitter hate filled loser rants and shove them where the sun don't shine.

[Scott]

Inflammatory post reported and removed.

 

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, JCP108 said:

The false positive rate in the world (outside of Thailand which has reported a full false and true positive rate in the sandbox of 0.17%) is 0.4-0.7%. See article below. If 100k people arrive each day and the false pos rate is 0.4%, then 400 people a day will be shipped off to mandatory 14-day quarantine. 

 

https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

Unless those who test positive are tested twice...   I’m not sure if that occurs but did read somewhere that positive tests are re-confirmed (I may be mistaken).

 

 

 

 

[charmonman]

They haven't even announced what all the ten chosen countries are yet, or the procedure for entering under the no quarantine system. The largest of the countries they actually have announced isn't even allowing its own citizens to travel yet. Most entertainment is still closed and there is still a curfew. Most people I know who are planning to come are not going to do so until the authorities get their act together, the Thai economy is open, and most people in Thailand are fully vaccinated. 

 

It seems it has finally sunk in that quarantining of fully vaccinated incoming travellers is pointless, but it is only the first step towards rebuilding Thailand's devastated tourism industry.

 

I wouldn't worry about 100,000 tourist arrivals a day just yet.

 

 

[scorecard]

13 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

Its not a question of having the capacity to do all this testing, its a willingness to do so.

So far testing has appeared to be on the back burner.

 

Some 'can do / will do' attitude needed.

[IamNoone88]

With 40,000 cases per day, I understand why the UK would be "low risk" ???? . Many of the other countries have lengthy return quarantine procedures ..... and what happens if you arrive in Thailand and test positive ... they send you to hospital and quarantine the surrounding 20 pax that were sitting around you?  More holes than a Swiss cheese ... as usual.