The Thai government is doing the right thing to try very hard to keep Omicron out of Thailand.

 

But surely they must know that is ultimately impossible and that sooner or later it will enter the local population.

 

So assuming that will happen, how much time do you think it will take until Omicron is dominant?

 

The answer to this has real world implications.

 

Of course right now the booster programs need to be speeded up with urgency. That has started to happen but I doubt its enough.

 

My prediction: One month

In terms of a keyword -Yesterday!

Oh ! t a rough guess..... could be, maybe ,next few weeks,

it just takes one person to be infected ,and it takes off.

it must be running wild in UK , last week ,both my son

and daughter caught it, live in different areas of UK.

she reports it's just like a bad cold...... both unvaccinated .

regards Worgeordie

How would anyone know? The only people found with Omicron so far have been those tested when trying to enter the country. Have all the people on the same flights as those found infected been monitored and re-tested 2 or 3 days later? I have seen nothing to suggest that is the case. Thailand has stopped publishing daily testing numbers; don't test, don't find. If symptons are not serious or life threatening why would anyone test themself?

14 minutes ago, champers said:

How would anyone know? The only people found with Omicron so far have been those tested when trying to enter the country. Have all the people on the same flights as those found infected been monitored and re-tested 2 or 3 days later? I have seen nothing to suggest that is the case. Thailand has stopped publishing daily testing numbers; don't test, don't find. If symptons are not serious or life threatening why would anyone test themself?

Yes most likely it is already here. But even if so it still takes some time to be the dominant strain. But not much time.

22 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

both unvaccinated

Chips of the old block, aren't they?

 

But to answer the OP's question, I fear that the timing might be perfect for a massive contamination during the New year celebrations. Once more egg on the silly faces of the government, who should see the need to curtail the event right now.

Over Christmas, it will be a repeat of last year. I have 4 days of teaching at school left before the break and then I'd imagine I will be back to working from home again come January if not then by February for sure. 

So Songkran is off?

11 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

So Songkran is off?

We can only hope!!

I'd say it's definitely already here and circulating and there's not much incentive for the people in power to sound the alarm during the so called "peak season". We'll know the truth by mid January probably.

Not much good trying to keep it out, it's already here and probably by early Jan' we'll see it spreading like wildfire. As for being the dominant strain, my guess by March. As far as I can tell the entire world has had a gutsful of this pandemic and all the restrictions and lockdowns, those who want to get vaccinated know where to go, those who want booster shots can get them, or will very soon be able to get them, we've all been educated about wearing masks in public places, using hand sanitizer, and social distancing, so let the damn thing rip. 

1 hour ago, Boomer6969 said:

Chips of the old block, aren't they?

 

But to answer the OP's question, I fear that the timing might be perfect for a massive contamination during the New year celebrations. Once more egg on the silly faces of the government, who should see the need to curtail the event right now.

Why did you need to say that , I have had two AstraZeneca Jabs. if that's

what to referring to.

regards worgeordie

22 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Why did you need to say that , I have had two AstraZeneca Jabs. if that's

what to referring to.

regards worgeordie

Sorry Mate, I misread some fatherly pride in your post.

 

Maybe you should think about cutting them out of your will.

24 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Why did you need to say that , I have had two AstraZeneca Jabs. if that's

what to referring to.

regards worgeordie

No protection against being infected with Omicron after 100 days.

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

No protection against being infected with Omicron after 100 days.

So this is going to be a 3 times annually thing .....???? getting jabs,

the West seems to be in full panic over the Omicron , but in

South Africa were it originated, they don't seem to be too worried

about it, even the Doctors saying people more  easily  infected but way

less hospitalizations and serious problems. not as bad as Delta.

regards worgeordie 

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The Thai government is doing the right thing to try very hard to keep Omicron out of Thailand.

 

Explain to me how allowing europeans to enter under 'test and go' scheme is trying very hard to keep it out?

 

Have you seen what's going on in UK / Hollan / Germany to name a few.....

15 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

No protection against being infected with Omicron after 100 days.

so what, when the next strain comes out it'll be Pfizer or another vaccine that they say that about, then what, we get a booster every 3 months till we've had everything pumped into us?

Got my crystal ball out from under my bed….be prepared for the second coming of whatever around Christmas? ????

17 hours ago, sleepwalker999 said:

Over Christmas, it will be a repeat of last year. I have 4 days of teaching at school left before the break and then I'd imagine I will be back to working from home again come January if not then by February for sure. 

Without a doubt

Why there is this obsession over any variant of Covid is beyond me. I guess some folks just enjoy hysteria while the government enjoys control.

17 hours ago, Jingthing said:

So Songkran is off?

Hopefully not. 

Two to four weeks before it starts to escalate exponentially and the Government starts tightening Covid regulations. I expect some lock downs in a couple of months. ????

Well we knew it would come and it's now arrived

The Government will let  the Christmas and New Year holidays go ahead

Then will see how bad it gets after the holidays 

Can't see them closing down business wise  restrictions on travel Yes 

 

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

My prediction: One month

Agree. Next text from NYT, will give a idea; Isn’t about Omicron but the Pandemic is running.

 

I've been thinking about this a bit. It's too early to tell if Omicron is more or less deadly than Delta. I've seen intelligent arguments for both cases by people that know a lot more than I do. SA demographics skew young, and there were lots of Delta infections there, so these are confounding factors. We'll know a lot more in a few weeks.

 

It would be nice to know when it will hit Thailand the hardest, so I can time my booster for maximum protection ????

 

That's assuming a third shot's effectiveness wanes over time. Throw into the mix that they may tweak vaccines against Omicron at a later point, and it might be better to wait a bit.

 

I'll probably get a booster around the new year. Other than that, I don't think about it much. Life goes on.

Where do people come from asking such ,I wont say stupid questions. 

The answer is the second Tuesday of next weeek

55 minutes ago, apetryxx said:

Why there is this obsession over any variant of Covid is beyond me. I guess some folks just enjoy hysteria while the government enjoys control.

I guess you forgot about the millions dead from Covid.

 

I understand that for some people, it’s difficult to understand the impact of the virus unless it has affected you personally. Let’s hope it never does.

 

17 hours ago, worgeordie said:

So this is going to be a 3 times annually thing .....???? getting jabs,

the West seems to be in full panic over the Omicron , but in

South Africa were it originated, they don't seem to be too worried

about it, even the Doctors saying people more  easily  infected but way

less hospitalizations and serious problems. not as bad as Delta.

regards worgeordie 

I don’t think South Africa is going to tell us much about Omicron. The UK will be a better test. Optimally, Omicron will wipe out Delta, but there will be few severe cases. That would be an excellent outcome.

19 hours ago, Jingthing said:

My prediction: One month

Depends on what you mean by dominant?

More Omicron cases than Delta?

Delta is around 6,000 cases... Omicron has to go a long way yet to beat that.

I would predict at least 3-4 months or longer before significant numbers are noted domestically in Thailand. 

19 hours ago, worgeordie said:

Oh ! t a rough guess..... could be, maybe ,next few weeks,

it just takes one person to be infected ,and it takes off.

it must be running wild in UK , last week ,both my son

and daughter caught it, live in different areas of UK.

she reports it's just like a bad cold...... both unvaccinated .

regards Worgeordie

Begs the question why?