Best case scenario still dire for Thailand's tourism industry - worse case sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021

 

Image: TNN

 

TNN in what they called was an exclusive feature stated what everyone knows and a little that was new.

 

Thailand's tourism industry is in tatters just when it was showing signs of recovery, they said.

 

There was optimism when it appeared that the pandemic was under control in Thailand last year.

 

Then came the second wave that, TNN intimated, caught the government and the other Thai authorities on the hop. 

 

Now they said that Kasikorn bank's research instuitute was giving a best and worse case scenario for tourism in Thailand in 2021. 

 

Skeptics may even find the worst case scenario optimistic, notes Thaivisa. 

 

The best case scenario sees a world where the virus is largely under control and vaccines are being delivered and are effective and people around the world begin to travel internationally again. 

 

In this case they predicted 4.5 million foreign tourists for Thailand spending 340 billion baht.

 

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors and significantly less revenue. 

 

Similarly assessments for domestic tourism are also based on two scenarios. The first sees the virus under control in the first three months of this year, no third wave and vaccine programs starting to be rolled out successfully.

 

This says Thais will go on 120 million trips this year.

 

But if things don't go as planned domestic tourism could be just two thirds this figure.

 

Source: TNN

 

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7 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Best case scenario still dire for Thailand's tourism industry - worse case sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021

The way it's going, the headline later on in the year could be.............

"Best case scenario sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021" ! 

18 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors and significantly less revenue. 

Pretty sure this number will come down

A holiday in Thailand is a no-brainer.

 

Get a vaccination, get a Covid-free document, get a negative PCR test, get hundreds of thousands of dollars of health insurance, get on a plane with your mask, with no food or drink for 12 hours, arrive in Thailand, get a negative PCR test, go to 14 days quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine several thousand dollars poorer, get the Mor Chana app, try to find out where is not under provincial lockdown, go somewhere where there are still pubs and restaurants open, have a beer and a meal, get another negative PCR test, get on the airplane, with no food and drink for 12 hours, land in your home country, take a PCR test, go into quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine a  few thousand dollars even poorer, get home utterly exhausted - desperately needing a holiday.

 

What's not to like?

the previous estimations were 20mln, 10mln, 7mln, now 2mln.

I give only tens of thousands - that, if thai tourist industry is lucky and there won't be more waves with more dangerous strains

11,257 tourists and a baby's arm holding an apple. 

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors and significantly less revenue. 

 

2 million is the very best case scenario,  and that provided they scrap quaranten.

This topic calls out for a poll:

 

* More than 2 million

* More than one million

* More than 500,000

* A planeload of Chinese denied entry to Singapore.

* 2 Finns with a comfort dog

 

Closest to the target wins a trip on the submarine.

Tourists have to get a flight TO Thailand, that is the big issue as it is not only Thailand's quarantine rules, it is jumping through the hoops to get there.

 

Working in commercial aviation for 35+ years, in meetings with Boeing and Airbus each week, the current predictions as of this week are for air travel not to return to 2019 levels until Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.

 

Boeing and Airbus have the majority of the commercial airlines in the entire world as their customers, so their statistics should be the trusted ones; not wishful Thai thinking.

 

Trusting those numbers, there is a great chance people will find alternate destinations in that timeframe to visit and may enjoy them more than Thailand? 

 

It is anyone's guess what could happen to Thai tourism in the future?

 

Thailand seems to have no clue how many people have been laid off, working on reduced salaries, etc. and may take years to financially recover to afford a long holiday.

 

Who wants to visit a country in 2021 when half of the businesses have closed down, and new Covid areas are being found every day?

 

Even with family in Thailand, I am not planning to visit until 2025 right now. Even that length of time, it will all be dependent on the situation in Thailand.

 

Not only is Covid an issue, air pollution is and will become a huge issue as the government seems to have no clue how to tackle any environmental problems or maybe doesn't want to because there is no money in it for them?

 

4 years is a long time and with a military government that cannot seem to solve any of the countries problems, it seems Thailand can only to continue to get worse as problems start to compile over the years?

Down from 10 million?  I still think TAT needs to take off the rose colored glasses and don a set of reality goggles.  2 million?  What sort of pneumatic device do they plan to install at the border that bypassed the Machiavellian entry restrictions and that will squeeze the tourist into Thailand like sausage filling into a casing?  Ain't gonna happen.  Thailand is too nationalistic and xenophobic.
Foreigners are dirty Covid carriers that are a national security risk to Clean Thailand.

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Thailand's tourism industry is in tatters just when it was showing signs of recovery, they said

Recovery, on what planet?  Another article trying to pump life back into the tourism sector it appears.  Tourism is on life support right now, and it is almost time for TAT to be the big boy and pull the plug.  A reset is needed and a new tourism program developed with maybe a max of 1 million expected by mid 2022.  If it exceeds that, well then they can pat themselves on the back and move forward, slowly, cautiously and optimistically.  However, the way they have been going about it shows they have ungodly and worldly expectations.

Yet another tourism news story,

 

When will they give it a rest?

 

 

They will be lucky to get 100,000 genuine tourists this year. 

 

Not long stay people returning to family. 

 

Genuine tourists. 

 

Will not be many. 

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

Yet another tourism news story,

 

When will they give it a rest?

 

 

I guess when foreign tourism is 30+% of the economy... 

5 hours ago, RickBradford said:

A holiday in Thailand is a no-brainer.

 

Get a vaccination, get a Covid-free document, get a negative PCR test, get hundreds of thousands of dollars of health insurance, get on a plane with your mask, with no food or drink for 12 hours, arrive in Thailand, get a negative PCR test, go to 14 days quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine several thousand dollars poorer, get the Mor Chana app, try to find out where is not under provincial lockdown, go somewhere where there are still pubs and restaurants open, have a beer and a meal, get another negative PCR test, get on the airplane, with no food and drink for 12 hours, land in your home country, take a PCR test, go into quarantine, get another PCR test, leave quarantine a  few thousand dollars even poorer, get home utterly exhausted - desperately needing a holiday.

 

What's not to like?

You're wrong. Plenty of food and drink on the plane. 

3 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

Tourists have to get a flight TO Thailand, that is the big issue as it is not only Thailand's quarantine rules, it is jumping through the hoops to get there.

 

Working in commercial aviation for 35+ years, in meetings with Boeing and Airbus each week, the current predictions as of this week are for air travel not to return to 2019 levels until Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.

 

Boeing and Airbus have the majority of the commercial airlines in the entire world as their customers, so their statistics should be the trusted ones; not wishful Thai thinking.

 

Trusting those numbers, there is a great chance people will find alternate destinations in that timeframe to visit and may enjoy them more than Thailand? 

 

It is anyone's guess what could happen to Thai tourism in the future?

 

Thailand seems to have no clue how many people have been laid off, working on reduced salaries, etc. and may take years to financially recover to afford a long holiday.

 

Who wants to visit a country in 2021 when half of the businesses have closed down, and new Covid areas are being found every day?

 

Even with family in Thailand, I am not planning to visit until 2025 right now. Even that length of time, it will all be dependent on the situation in Thailand.

 

Not only is Covid an issue, air pollution is and will become a huge issue as the government seems to have no clue how to tackle any environmental problems or maybe doesn't want to because there is no money in it for them?

 

4 years is a long time and with a military government that cannot seem to solve any of the countries problems, it seems Thailand can only to continue to get worse as problems start to compile over the years?

You forgot to also mention that it was reported today that the birth rate in Thailand was alarmingly low with the Ministry of health calling for Immediate attention to this as Thailand.

 

5 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

The way it's going, the headline later on in the year could be.............

"Best case scenario sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2021" ! 

Bit of a typo there. It should possibly read Best case scenario sees only TWO million foreign visitors in 2022.

This military government is into 'control'.

They do not like foreigners. (Difficult to control.)

They do not need tourist's money.

They do not care about the majority of Thai people. (Should we bring the Thai/Chinese factor here? This has been the most 'celebrated' CNY in the last 20 years.)

The world is changing.

1 hour ago, exparte said:

You forgot to also mention that it was reported today that the birth rate in Thailand was alarmingly low with the Ministry of health calling for Immediate attention to this as Thailand.

 

So, if i am fully vaccinated, you wouldn't be suggesting a visitor/breeding visa to kill two birds with one stone would you ? I could live with that, but my wife would hate it

6 hours ago, RickBradford said:

This topic calls out for a poll:

 

* More than 2 million

* More than one million

* More than 500,000

* A planeload of Chinese denied entry to Singapore.

* 2 Finns with a comfort dog

 

Closest to the target wins a trip on the submarine.

TV members have at least the same chances of guessing the right number, as the TAT and Ministry geniuses..

7 hours ago, RickBradford said:

This topic calls out for a poll:

 

* More than 2 million

* More than one million

* More than 500,000

* A planeload of Chinese denied entry to Singapore.

* 2 Finns with a comfort dog

 

Closest to the target wins a trip on the submarine.

 

I'll go for 50 Chinese business men who are "Schrodinger's Cat" type "tourists" as they are simply names pulled out of a database at random

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

But the worst case scenario - possibly where a third wave of Covid was experienced, might see only 2 million foreign visitors

or 200,000.

Only way they'll get into the millions is if they fast-track willing Chinese (if they're allowed out).

I can see 2 million.  Of course a lot of it will be people doing visa runs, so it's not really truly 2 million, more like 500 thousand at best.

 

11 hours ago, rooster59 said:

But if things don't go as planned domestic tourism could be just two thirds this figure.

SO all the unemployed Thai tourism workers could replace all the labor imported from neighboring countries....win win for Thailand no? ????

5 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

This military government is into 'control'.

I thought they were out of control (corruption)!

The current regulations and paperwork required to enter Thailand are tedious and difficult. 100,000 US Covid insurance cover is expensive and not easy to find for seniours. Depending on what type of visa you want there can also be an extra health insurance requirement. Health report is required from your doctor plus a negative Covid test within 72 hours of flight (I guess the health check and Covid test are fair enough). Documents have to be submitted to the local Thai Consulate for a Certificate of entry to be issued. Quarantine hotel needs to be booked and in some cases , paid for in advance. A flight needs to be found , this is not possible from some areas at the moment and can be expensive. So just to get to Thailand and undertake Quarantine is going to cost probably around 5,000 US. Thats before you embark on your holiday travels. All this will prevent any increase in tourism this year. However if a more sensible approach doing away with quarantine for vaccinated travellers who have tested clear before travel, and a reduction in insurance costs were adopted I feel numbers would certainly improve.

We will await there next crazy idea.

You’d think that with tourism down, they’d somehow compensate the economy and entice investments with a very competitive currency.  This is simply not the case here.

20 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

11,257 tourists and a baby's arm holding an apple. 

Including yourself again... tut tut.

thai have 2 problems

covid and military,the second lacking little bit overvelmed by covid.

i in good situation sold already in thailand all except wife and 1 apartnent

i sold after nearly 4 yrs military

still happy and not care when i can go back anymore and if  future only in winter..i was 31 year in thai military was the point to go

 

i hv to go back urgently to singapore thats my only problem but even there no news

thainews since long time are like a childrens casper theater

I gave up reading the daily predictions several weeks ago. I remember that at this time last year, or thereabouts, the prediction all around the world was that it would be over by (northern) summer, and definitely by October and then definitely by Christmas.

 

The reality is that it is still getting worse, with more dangerous strains appearing. It could not even be said to be under control. It will be a long time yet, years, before life can return to normal, in no small part due to the fact that so many people continue to spread it with irresponsible behaviour.

 

So predictions of a return to normal anywhere, not just in Thailand, are a waste of time and simply wishful thinking.

11 hours ago, PatOngo said:

SO all the unemployed Thai tourism workers could replace all the labor imported from neighboring countries....win win for Thailand no? ????

And all the unemployed from the West that have lost there incomes ( or had them reduced ) will replace all the Chinese Tourists that visit Thailand

Even more of a win win.