Thai PM sees signs of pandemic slowing with adherence to current restrictions

[brewsterbudgen]

3 minutes ago, timmyp said:

I think the lockdown isn't helping control the spread at all, and has long since been time to open up. 

I just don't like this claim that the lockdown here has been successful at anything except making people suffer. 

 

Sure would be nice if he'd just undeclare the lockdown today instead of making everyone suffer another 12 days. 

 

I really hope kids can go to school like they have been the whole time in Japan and Sweden.  

Be careful. Expressing hope is frowned on by some!

[Mickeymaus]

But obviously he also said

 

"Some Covid-19 restrictions may be lifted in September, according to Thai Prime Minister"

 

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/08/18/some-covid-19-restrictions-may-be-lifted-in-september-according-to-thai-prime-minister/

[MrJ2U]

Why should anyone believe this charlatan?

 

Nothing is under control.

 

The outer provinces especially Isssan are next.  

 

Does he actually think people believe him.

 

One of this juntas problems is they believe there doing a good job.

 

[Kadilo]

14 minutes ago, timmyp said:

I think the lockdown isn't helping control the spread at all, and has long since been time to open up. 

I just don't like this claim that the lockdown here has been successful at anything except making people suffer. 

 

Sure would be nice if he'd just undeclare the lockdown today instead of making everyone suffer another 12 days. 

 

I really hope kids can go to school like they have been the whole time in Japan and Sweden.  

Agreed. The damage to the children’s education is immeasurable along with the thousands of Thais now jobless, homeless and penniless. 
 

 

[Walker88]

31 minutes ago, cclub75 said:

-record the daily numbers given by thai authorities about patients in "serious conditions" and among them, the patients with "ventilators" (ICUs). Twitter ThaiNewsReport gives those number each day.

 

-put everything into a spreadsheet.

 

-calculate the daily progression in %

 

-make an average 7 days

 

-plot the data on a chart

 

What do you see ? A clear downward trend from end of june to now. From +4 % to almost 0 now.

 

3 explanations possible :

-thai doctors treat better

-the virus is peaking

-the vaccines start to work (reduce the number of severe cases)

 

A mix of all 3.

 

Add to the equation the fact that even without any human intervention... a virus always "peaks" (bell shape).

 

So yes i know it's fashion and easy to laugh about Prayuth... but as a matter of fact... data prove him right.

 

This Covid "wave" is almost over.

 

Sorry for the doom lovers.

Math can be deceptive. It can also be abused.

 

Reduce to the ridiculous:

 

Day 1:  1 ICU.

Day 2: a second ICU....Oh my! 100% increase!

A week later 30 in ICU:  Rate of growth, which is less than 100%, shows a decline.

Moving averages do not smooth that. Any initial increase over a small number is a large percent, while once overall numbers are large, the percent change is obviously less than when the universe was small.

 

Also, one performing such math gymnastics has to assume all data is accurate and reliable. Also has to assume an infinite number of ICUs and ventilators, as otherwise the rate of growth is capped by the facilities available.

 

Thailand does not have infinite ICUs nor ventilators, thus nothing can be deduced from your math.

[thailand49]

He predicted that he could solve the traffic problem in Bangkok in a month, it didn't happen in that time frame so he brought the Thai people the virus to help?

 

He predicted in April when the infection was at 1000 per day they had a handle on the problem?

 

Now another prediction all done in the comfort of his palace being vaccinated with the AZ and now a good booster from the American donation of the Pfizer includes all his family and staff that wait on him hand and foot. He feels no discomfort enjoys his life as if nothing has happen while outside of his doors his people are suffering physically and mentally.

 

More predictions each morning and more failures I hope at some point the stuff he is throwing out one of them actually sticks to the wall!????

[internationalism]

so daily jump tuesday deaths from 239 to wednesday (when he was speaking) 312 is a sign of an improvement. OK, Thursday only 301, but that is minimal fall in comparison to large jump day before.

According to mathematical simulation run 2 weeks ago pick is expected in the second part of september, so for a month still rising. With expected 45k positives and 400-500 daily deaths.

the GPO has ordered import from japan some 200mln antiviral favinopavir and from october boosting it's own production from 3mln to 40mln. That might be a sign, that this wave will last till the end of this year. Still they are short. Using 1mln pills daily, with jump to almost 4mln daily at the pick

Edited August 19, 2021 by internationalism

[Bkk Brian]

He also said nobody should die at home with covid because of lack of hospital care. Thats not worked out yet

[LittleBear57]

Cycled passed a building site this morning with about 30 Burmese workers (yellow faces) outside waiting for it to open. No social distancing and not one mask between them. How many more are like this?

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling reference to the PM has been removed. 

[thurien]

his divine foresight and all his powerful amulets did not help at all (his personal problem: at that time of foresight he never had any professional voices to substantiate his nonsense blabla)

 

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by thurien

[crazykopite]

Why does he persist in spewing out verbal diarrhoea 

[jacko45k]

37 minutes ago, nickmondo said:

nice post, but i dont agree.

Nowhere near the peak of new infections or deaths yet.

Lets see who is right after another couple of weeks.

I hope im wrong.

I am a little concerned now that the numbers we are seeing, per new infections. are further from reality than they were previously. Less testing may be a cause, but there also seems to be a concentrated effort to keep that number below that of those being declared 'cured', and allow some patting of backs and easing of the people's worry. 

[Caldera]

Is it a sign he's seen, or just another delusion? Hard to tell with this man, but I'm leaning towards the latter.

[sambum]

Does he now? That’s very reassuring - I’ll sleep a lot better knowing that!

[thurien]

20 minutes ago, internationalism said:

so daily jump tuesday deaths from 239 to wednesday (when he was speaking) 312 is a sign of an improvement. OK, Thursday only 301, but that is minimal fall in comparison to large jump day before.

According to mathematical simulation run 2 weeks ago pick is expected in the second part of september, so for a month still rising. With expected 45k positives and 400-500 daily deaths.

the GPO has ordered import from japan some 200mln antiviral favinopavir and from october boosting it's own production from 3mln to 40mln. That might be a sign, that this wave will last till the end of this year. Still they are short. Using 1mln pills daily, with jump to almost 4mln daily at the pick

and let us not forget: even the tiny kingdom of Bhutan was asked by the proud Thai government to help out with just a few (150k) doses of A-Z ... uncoordinated, powerless, corrupt, totally inept

 

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by thurien

[BestB]

Look on the bright side , at least he is less draconian than Australian government.

 

23000 testing positive but 24000 recovered and he sees this as improvement, australia has 400 positive and state goes into hard lockdown

 

we actually lucky here????

[Tropicalevo]

And it's getting better

Growing stronger

warm and wilder

Getting better everyday,

better everyday

 

With thanks to Uncle Tu and Mama Cass.

[TheAppletons]

16 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

Why does he persist in spewing out verbal diarrhoea 

  Because his words make people vomit.  Just a guess.

[Phredd]

Paryuth and his Rose Coloured Glasses at it again.

[Nojohndoe]

Optimism can not replace credibility !

[Moo 2]

Have you noticed that the people who tell you to calm down are the one who upset you in the first place!?

[Cake Monster]

The actual rate at which the Infections are spreading has remained more or less at the same velocity since early July, so the implemented strategies to slow the Virus are not working one Jot.

Yes, the MOPH figures for those tested has dropped, but the " slack " has been taken up by the use of unregulated and unreported ATK tests.

As for the 300 + Deaths, it has been reported that over a Hundred of these were from unreported Deaths going back several Months

If the Death rate gets " unreported " then there is little confidence that anything else has not been "unreported  " over the same period of time.

Things were always going to revert back to Smoke and Mirrors the closer time got to October, and these things need to take time to manifest themselves into a picture of all things Beautiful and Tranquil in Thailand by that date.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Is he for real.  He forgets the recoveries are not of those truly recovered but released to make beds for new cases, while self treating and isolation for 10 to 14 more days at home. Then add in the ATK positive folks not counted as a case, and well there you have it. Now as far as deaths they lag cases by a few weeks and we will possibly see those numbers climb more. In 2 weeks let's see if this so called down trend impacts deaths with less of them. If so you can say it's trending downward, unless you start to not count those bodies found at home from positive ATK tests.

From my personal experience, patients in hospitals are not released until they have complete satisfactory testing by lung imaging, oxygen level and negative Covid-19 testing. Upon release, you are required to isolate for 10 days as a precaution. Most don;t follow that guideline. 

[recom273]

I think I just peed my pant a little bit ????

[dallen52]

 

None so blind as they that refuse to see.

 

The man's a buffoon.

[DUNROAMIN]

Which crytal ball was this statement from, maybe same as TAT's.

[brewsterbudgen]

47 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

Why does he persist in spewing out verbal diarrhoea 

Because he's a politician. 

[dallen52]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

He also said nobody should die at home with covid because of lack of hospital care. Thats not worked out yet

My village has filled the temples with positive and sick people.

Suppose less transport if they don't recover.

[Fairynuff]

When someone in his situation is seeing things it’s time to get nervous. Such a visionary he is, but sadly nobody else sees what he does.