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By Andrew J Wood

 

BANGKOK:  Speaking at Thursday morning’s webinar “Gearing up Thailand Economic Recovery in 2022 and Beyond” organised by the Thai Exhibition Association (TEA) and sub-headed A Brighter Outlook for Thailand’s Exhibition Industry, Mr. Montri Mahaplerkpong Secretary General of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) suggested it may take 8-10 years for tourism to recover. 

 

Other webinar speakers included Mr. Kavit Kittyboonya, Vice President, the Thai Exhibition Association (TEA), Mr.Chiruit Isarangkun Na Ayuthaya, President, Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB) and Mr. Stanley Kang, Chairman, Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand. 

 

In addition Mr. Montri Mahaplerkpong Secretary General, The Federation of Thai Industries who impressed many of those attending the webinar with his presentation.   Responding to my question his reply was both thoughtful and well reasoned. 

 

Does the panel have an estimate when tourism will normalise?

 

Mr. Montri replied by firstly stating that tourism was not the Federation’s specialised area however if we compare the global pandemic to a Thailand centric crisis such as the ‘97 Tom Yum Financial Crisis, this started here in one country.  It took 5 years to recover. Now if we look at the Covid pandemic it is global involving all countries. “I can‘t see tourism recovering for 8-10 years,” he said. 

 

He went on to explain that this was also dependent on other factors. He asked,  “How safe is it to travel on an aircraft?” Economy class travel is too cramped for social distancing so high-end tourism travelling in business class with more space, may improve quicker than economy class tourism he suggested. In addition he felt the rate of vaccinations and certification would effect the pace of the recovery. 

 

Webinar no.2 of the series will take place on 26th August 2021 via Zoom 10:00-11:30 (GMT+7) and entitled “Where to Play and How to Win”. 

 

What was the Tom Yum Kung Crisis?

 

The Thai dish Tom Yum Kung  is a spicy Thai shrimp soup. 

 

The Tom Yum Kung Crisis was an economic meltdown, set into motion by a number of different factors in 1997. It was dubbed this particular name because of the heat Thai citizens were feeling during this time, and the stress of this crisis and the financial implications of it led many people to take their own lives. It was the worst economic crisis Thailand had ever seen, and the effects were felt far and wide. People’s salaries were cut in half, jobs were lost, and those who were planning on entering the workforce could not find any jobs, regardless of their skills or previous education.

 

What caused the crisis?

 

Many factors came into play, starting with the real estate market which began to crash in 1996. Then the stock index fell. A total of 16 financial institutions were shut down, and by July 2, 1997, the baht was floating, which had not happened in 14 years. 

 

Thailand recovered but it took 5 years.

 

--2021-08-20

Mr. Montri replied by firstly stating that tourism was not the Federation’s specialised area... BUT SEEM TO UNDERSTAND IT ALOT MORE THAN THE TAT. 

IMO as soon as the world will learn and adopt to live with Covid that's how soon things will go back to a NEW normal, forget the old normal...

It's like saying never

6 minutes ago, BE88 said:

It's like saying never

Most likely outcome.....

32 minutes ago, webfact said:

Economy class travel is too cramped for social distancing so high-end tourism travelling in business class with more space, may improve quicker than economy class tourism he suggested.

Yes, and, even better, First Class has no covid whatsoever.

 

My cat's turds are smarter than this guy.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

“I can‘t see tourism recovering for 8-10 years,”

He'll never get a job with TAT despite those rose-coloured  glasses.

The question is do "we" really want tourism back to past levels and the rampant association with concrete, uncontrolled building and greed.

He is correct.

 

All the resultant dissatisfaction will manifest itself in political protest and civil unrest, as we are now seeing.

 

Real tough times ahead for Thailand.

41 minutes ago, Whale said:

The question is do "we" really want tourism back to past levels and the rampant association with concrete, uncontrolled building and greed.

I suppose that depends on who one defines as "we".

 

The many tens, no, hundreds of thousands who worked in a wide range of of jobs and are now without livelihoods would probably say yes.

 

There are signs that people are feeling more confident to travel and this is strongly correlated to vaccine rollout and virus effective contained. Down to the czar to made this happen. He is the only reason why tourism has not recovered. Anyway K Montri is way off his area of expertise and really should not made the off the cuff comment. 

a strange question about tourism to ask at this discussion panel.

They have nothing to do with tourism, so answer was good enough as my or anybodies else opinion.

He did mention economy class travel. There were restrictions on air plane travel up to 50% passenger capacity during the first wave. They were cancelled in the USA and in Europe around June 2020. Instead testing was introduced.

Soon later similar rules came to Thailand.

Now, with mass vax programs around the world, all air lines long forgot about distancing. 

TAT will probably be sad to learn about The Federation of Thai Industries' prediction, it does not at all fit into their calculations...????

If the infections are down , people are vaccinated and they drop a lot of the rules , i would be more then happy to come . All 3 of those are far away , and i am afraid the rules ( COE , extra insurance , phone tracking , quarantine for 2 weeks ...) gonna stay long time .

I see 3-5 years, perhaps sooner if they continue to ramp up vaccinations. Don't underestimate the average Thai, the street level Thais. They are tough, resilient, and clever when need be.

42 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I see 3-5 years, perhaps sooner if they continue to ramp up vaccinations. Don't underestimate the average Thai, the street level Thais. They are tough, resilient, and clever when need be.

I guess we lived in a different Thailand.

Finally, someone with a realistic outlook.

Bingo !! Give this man an award for living in the real world ! 
Not la la land the TAT live in ! 

Way its going, it will soon be easier for my wife to come stay with me in the UK for 6 months  than me go there !

Xmas 2022 before we have a positive vibe regarding tourism in Thailand is my guess. 

8 hours ago, webfact said:

BANGKOK:  Speaking at Thursday morning’s webinar “Gearing up Thailand Economic Recovery in 2022 and Beyond” organised by the Thai Exhibition Association (TEA) and sub-headed A Brighter Outlook for Thailand’s Exhibition Industry, Mr. Montri Mahaplerkpong Secretary General of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) suggested it may take 8-10 years for tourism to recover.

Some truth at last.

3 hours ago, Sharp said:

Xmas 2022 before we have a positive vibe regarding tourism in Thailand is my guess. 

If they're lucky.

 

I have a feeling that they will take every and any measure to prevent things from normalising.

 

Until the COVID prisons disappear there will be no mass tourism of any kind.

 

If they don't get rid of this forced isolation policy then mass tourism will not return, ever.

Finally a realistic prediction. This man obviously would never be offered a position at TAT, who I assume will bring out a new, very generous prediction tomorrow. 

 

overly pessimistic outlook i'd say, though probably a counter balance to usual overly optimistic forecast pronouncements.

 

an interesting and wide ranging article from the guardian estimates 2024 for full tourism recovery

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/aug/19/no-one-comes-here-any-more-the-human-cost-as-covid-wipes-out-tourism

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Speaking at Thursday morning’s webinar “Gearing up Thailand Economic Recovery in 2022 and Beyond” organised by the Thai Exhibition Association (TEA) and sub-headed A Brighter Outlook for Thailand’s Exhibition Industry, Mr. Montri Mahaplerkpong Secretary General of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) suggested it may take 8-10 years for tourism to recover. 

Optimistically.  Realistically?  Never.  Don't tell TAT.

In Italy, Spain,France tourists areas are packed of people enyoing summer holidays.

South East Asia(Thailand especially) just digged their own grave.

It feels refreshing to read news thats not all fluffy like TAT like.

 

That prediction is a lot worse than many would would have proclaimed.

 

News like that affects markets.

 

You have to tell it like it is if you want to be taken seriously.

Quote

How safe is it to travel on an aircraft?” Economy class travel is too cramped for social distancing so high-end tourism travelling in business class with more space, may improve quicker than economy class tourism he suggested. In addition he felt the rate of vaccinations and certification would effect the pace of the recovery. 

Not everyone is so scared of the virus that they can't leave their house even after getting vaccinated but it is inconvenient and difficult to travel which is putting off many people.

6 minutes ago, rabang said:

Not everyone is so scared of the virus that they can't leave their house even after getting vaccinated but it is inconvenient and difficult to travel which is putting off many people.

Exactly.

Without restrictions I'd just live my life the same as before

These assumptions require basics like a complete revamp of the way this country is run.

No checks and balances nowhere, conflicts of interest in whichever direction you look, the social structure with their "phoyai (ผู้ใหญ่)" which instigates authoritarian fear into the low(er) lives of this country which contribute 75+ percent of the population. 

Give fair, younger and professional politicians the stage and put everyone there where they belong.

The present mess with all ministries getting involved in all business, monopolized license production of vaccines to please and seriously enrich higher ups are provenly completely counter productive - to the disadvantage of all those below the lowest rung on the Thai ladder of elitarian oligarchy. 

I am neither communist nor socialist but the disintegration of an industrial nation with a albeit stuttering but still functioning economy and tourism trade in the recent past to the attitude of a third world country is more than mind boggling, 100% self-made by all the crooks, thieves and gangsters. 

What a pity for a beautiful land with - in general - lovely people.