1 minute ago, anchadian said:

9.15 More people, than in the past few days, are waiting in line to get tested for COVID-19 at the government complex on Chaengwattana Road this morning. This test site uses the Antigen test kits, which produce results in 30 minutes.

 

Video:

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1420573927286272000

 

Which means that this will also become a super spreader event after they test positive and then are sent home.  Gotta love the hypocrisy. 

11 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

You probably just notice them more because there is so little other traffic.

 

Today's COVID death toll of 165 is about TRIPLE what the typical daily road deaths figure for Thailand used to be... although in recent days those numbers have been around 10-15 per day.

 

All the folks here who used to post -- ohh but there are more road deaths every day in Thailand than COVID deaths -- seem to have moved on to other deflections and distractions.  Don't hear that argument any more these days.

 

31 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

How many folk have decided that if feeling ill they will try and 'ride it out at home'. 

Possibly due to overcrowding of hospitals, inability to obtain a test etc.

That figure we have no idea.

 

Yes I agree . India has a official death rate of 440.000 from covid 19  . Unofficial death rate 3,5000,000 and 4,5000,000

Some off-topic posts about home gyms have been removed. That diversion has run its course to the end.

 

Also a post with a fake official statement.

 

 

42 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Why don't Thai billionaires put their hands in their deep pockets? 

 

Yes, good question. Yesterday I handed out another 500b to some poor soul on the street. That's 0.01% or my net worth or whatever. How much could 0.01% net worth of 100 richest people here help Thais that are really suffering, Thai rak Tahi my behind

 

 

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

I'm sorry to say that the WHO has stated time and time again vaccinating out of a wave does not work.  It takes far too much time to get immunity up.  

 

 

In surfing terms if one gets caught inside when a cleanup set comes you're going to get pounded.Thailand got caught inside and is getting pounded.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Mid to late nxt yr? Those who have been doulbe vacced with sinovac will need boosters as I think will AZ doubled vacced. The great unknown of course is a new variant and it's the mRNA that are best to deal with this. Not joining COVAC was a very big mistake. At the time I believe they only had money on their minds and probably pressure from the CCP hence all the eggs in one basket approach with home grown AZ as some sort of future proofing. 

That's a grim thought. Do you think the current restrictions will have to remain in place until then as well, or does your prediction assume that the restrictions will be lifted in the next few weeks/months?

UPDATE & CLARIFICATION: The US are expected to be sending 2.5 million doses of vaccine to Thailand. The first lot of 1.5 million doses will arrive in Bangkok on Friday. A further 1 million doses is planned for a future shipment. It is not 4 million as we mentioned earlier. Sorry.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1420580782712623104

 

On a per capita basis, Bangkok is becoming one of Thailand's safest places. It seems behavior is also different in Bangkok than in the provinces.

 

I see perhaps 3-4 people a day in Bangkok who are not masked. Invariably these are foreigners. Sometimes they are jogging, which is truly inconsiderate, as they are breathing heavily in the faces of passersby and for some reason choose to run on major, pedestrian-heavy avenues like Sukhumvit. I understand parks are closed, but it isn't too difficult to find a route through. uncrowded minor Sois.

 

At restaurants everyone working there is masked. All the delivery people are masked. Other walk-in customers are masked, or if not, told by the restaurant staff to mask up or go away.

 

I'm not sure if it makes any difference, but I see lots of folks walking around their shops spraying alcohol in their area, including on the street one traverses to enter their shop. People are aware of the risks, and it seems people are scared. Vaccination rates---even one jab---are likely higher in Bangkok, too, so even a carrier has a lesser viral load as the vaccine helps fight off the virus. Though hospitals are bursting at the seams, medical care is likely better in Bangkok than rural areas, and for foreigners and hi-so Thais with means, there's always Bumrungrad.

 

Members here who live in the provinces write about Thai gatherings where the behavior is the same as pre-Covid. Perhaps I'm too sheltered in Bangkok, but I do not see that behavior in this city. I do know of a few 'secret bars' frequented by foreigners, but as I noted yesterday in a post, I know of one where two regular customers are now in critical condition fighting off Covid. I believe that secret bar is now closed, because the staff refuses to come to work.

59 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Wow. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Yes indeed.

A very moving and potent Photograph.

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Viruses can also mutate to become less lethal / less transmissible.  That really what accounted for the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic.

The 1918 Flu had nothing to do with Spain. If at least it had started in Spain, but it didn't. It had nothing to do with Spain at all. It got that name because it happened during WWI and all countries were censoring the news about the flu; Spain was neutral so its media informed. And hence the name. Probably the most unfortunate and unfair nickname ever given.

4 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I see perhaps 3-4 people a day in Bangkok who are not masked. Invariably these are foreigners.

Do you mean farang? 

 

Anutin was maybe right about farang not wearing masks? 

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Let's hope you're wrong, but if you're right, how long before natural herd immunity takes effect?

Long ago I asked (can't remember where) how exactly herd immunity developed from 70% inoculated, ie physically how does it happen. 

I got jumped all over and told that herd immunity is a "concept" and not a physical reality. Can any on here tell me any different. 

Thailand’s worsening Covid crisis has brought hospitals to a brink of collapse

 

A slow vaccination drive and the Thai government’s handling of the pandemic has led to increasing public anger

 

Thailand’s coronavirus crisis has intensified, with rising cases burdening hospitals and pushing the country’s healthcare system to the brink.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/covid-cases-thailand-hospitals-doctors-b1892161.html

Man up Prayuth. Take the blame, along with your talentless health minister. 

 

The destruction you two have caused to your nation is unfathomable. One can only hope a rather inglorious fate awaits you both. 

6 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

On a per capita basis, Bangkok is becoming one of Thailand's safest places. It seems behavior is also different in Bangkok than in the provinces.

 

I see perhaps 3-4 people a day in Bangkok who are not masked. Invariably these are foreigners. Sometimes they are jogging, which is truly inconsiderate, as they are breathing heavily in the faces of passersby and for some reason choose to run on major, pedestrian-heavy avenues like Sukhumvit. I understand parks are closed, but it isn't too difficult to find a route through. uncrowded minor Sois.

 

You really are blaming the wrong people here.  The WHO advise against wearing masks when exercising for good reason.   You should be grateful there are people taking care of themselves as these people are less likely to need a hospital bed if they contract the virus.  In the absence of vaccines  this is the best thing someone can do to protect themselves against severe illness.    If you are going to be angry at someone, be angry at the idiots who closed the parks in the first place - they are directly responsible for this. 

Just a rough chart I made showing the current trajectory. The number of cases doubles on about 

 the 18th of next month.

It's not very accurate and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

 

 

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

The only problem with this logic is walk-ins are being turned away. No beds-no tests-go home.

Nope.

 

As long as the number of walk-in cases increase, in the near term, overall new cases will increase. How many are turned away does not impact this simple correlation.

4 minutes ago, rott said:

Long ago I asked (can't remember where) how exactly herd immunity developed from 70% inoculated, ie physically how does it happen. 

I got jumped all over and told that herd immunity is a "concept" and not a physical reality. Can any on here tell me any different. 

Yes. Herd immunity is a real thing.

 

Google is your friend.

 

Herd immunity via infection is not possible for Covid, though, since the virus mutates.

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Pretty sure a lot of these cases will not be counted or retested. They don't want the numbers to look any higher. Every time new heights are there the PM looks bad and we can't have that can we.

Considering the numbers are some of the worst in Asia, it's apparent they're not trying to keep the numbers down all that much. Never mind that nobody needs to see higher numbers to know there's a problem.

1 hour ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Why don't Thai billionaires put their hands in their deep pockets? 

They should too, of course.

Just now, jacob29 said:

Considering the numbers are some of the worst in Asia, it's apparent they're not trying to keep the numbers down all that much. Never mind that nobody needs to see higher numbers to know there's a problem.

The fact that a quick test has to be confirmed by an other test suggests otherwise. But sure these numbers show the problem. 

6 minutes ago, Marcous said:

Just a rough chart I made showing the current trajectory. The number of cases doubles on about 

 the 18th of next month.

It's not very accurate and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

 

 

Interesting but it has to change direction some time. 

Phuket ‘Third Wave’ COVID infections breach 1,000

 

PHUKET: The Phuket Provincial Public Health Office (PPHO) daily COVID-19 situation report for yesterday (July 28) has marked 24 new infections, bringing the total number of people recognised as infected with COVID-19 in Phuket since Apr 3 to over 1,000.

 

The 24 new local infections did not include one Phuket Sandbox arrival testing positive for COVID-19 and three more Phuket residents infected with COVID-19 in other provinces brought back to the island for treatment under the “Bring Phuket people home” policy.

 

As such, the 24 new cases bring the total number of new local infections on the island in the past seven days to 160, as follows: https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-third-wave-covid-infections-breach-1-000-80849.php

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

Mmm, well you did have a metric that if more people turned up at hospitals, cases would rise. That is true.

 

but there was the other one wasn’t there? You know, the one where you said that hospitals can’t be full if admissions exceed discharges on any given day. 
 

mix up those two “metrics” and my post may seem to be garbled. Apply my post to the correct “metric”, and it is perfectly clear. Unless now that your “metric” on how to know whether hospitals are full or not, has been proven to be absolute nonsense, just as so many people told you previously, you wish to pretend you never said it?
 

unless…….do you still believe hospitals are not full?

Let me turn your question around, when I stated that hospitals were not full 3 weeks ago, was I wrong? Alternatively, do you believe that hospitals were full 3 weeks ago?

 

Note that I specifically differentiated between 100% occupancy and being full, since hospitals can operate beyond 100% capacity in an emergency.

 

To recap the bidding:

 

3 weeks ago, I pointed out the correlation between rising walk-in hospital cases and subsequent increases in new infections.

 

3 weeks ago, I noted that hospitals were still not completely full. 3 weeks ago, not today, I know you are itching to claim that I am stating that hospitals are not full today.

 

So, which of these assertions was worth wasting our time with drivel?

 

 

5 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

That's a grim thought. Do you think the current restrictions will have to remain in place until then as well, or does your prediction assume that the restrictions will be lifted in the next few weeks/months?

Current 'restrictions' are doing nothing as pretty much expected. A true hard lockdown of the entire country for 6 wks minimum with a massive mobilisation of mobile vaccination and testing centres. Got an army so use it. Alternative leave things as they are and wait for 70% - 80% of the population to be fully vaccinated and/or hope that the Delta will somehow burn itself out and no other variant will take it's place and that the entire public health system doesn't collapse. This means infections and deaths will continue upward. This is the course Thailand is on. Cost benefit analysis. Of course the longer this goes on the greater the cost which may well exceed a 6 wk truly hard lockdown. This should have happened long before now and the situation here would more than likely not be as critical as it now is.

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

The fact that a quick test has to be confirmed by an other test suggests otherwise. But sure these numbers show the problem. 

Positive quick tests are usually followed by PCR tests. Weeding out lots of negative cases with quick tests removes pressure on PCR testing capacity.

14 minutes ago, James105 said:

You really are blaming the wrong people here.  The WHO advise against wearing masks when exercising for good reason.   You should be grateful there are people taking care of themselves as these people are less likely to need a hospital bed if they contract the virus.  In the absence of vaccines  this is the best thing someone can do to protect themselves against severe illness.    If you are going to be angry at someone, be angry at the idiots who closed the parks in the first place - they are directly responsible for this. 

Exercise at home with no mask ok. Outside by yourself with 100% no chance of infecting others ok. But if there is a chance of community spread you either wear a mask properly or don't excersise. This is called social responsibiliy.

12 minutes ago, rabas said:

Positive quick tests are usually followed by PCR tests. Weeding out lots of negative cases with quick tests removes pressure on PCR testing capacity.

In theory.

 

in practice, not follow up positive quick tests, have them self isolate. No PCR tests so they don’t show up in the daily numbers.

 

if you have doubts, Google “Phetchabun chicken factory “.

25 minutes ago, James105 said:

You really are blaming the wrong people here.  The WHO advise against wearing masks when exercising for good reason.   You should be grateful there are people taking care of themselves as these people are less likely to need a hospital bed if they contract the virus.  In the absence of vaccines  this is the best thing someone can do to protect themselves against severe illness.    If you are going to be angry at someone, be angry at the idiots who closed the parks in the first place - they are directly responsible for this. 

Is exercise one of the reasons people are permitted to leave their homes for?