With plans underway, which option best expresses your opinion on how successful it will be? 

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

 

For further reading:

https://aseannow.com/topic/1235345-pm-cant-wait-any-longer-27-countries-could-be-granted-no-quarantine-access-to-thailand/#comments

 

I think as long as they require insurance, COE, Covid tests and vaccines it will be a failure.

 

They should follow with other major countries & allow fully vaccinated entry with just a preflight test in their home country

 

Anything more will not likely be tolerated by visitors.

Of course those who need to travel due to family etc will always travel as will the sexpats of course

 

If they opened without coe/thailand pass, ASQ, insuransces, there are of course still a small number testing positive and a very small number actually sick. But it would be a smal cost for thailand to cover for those instead of scaring a potential tourists away by the insurance demand. And in terms if covid spread, it's already spread in Thailand! 

Of course it'll be a failure as long as they ask for all the convoluted nonsense like they are now. What they are seemingly proposing for their big "reopening" is essentially just a re-brand of the sandbox program, making it national. 

 

Most people dont have the time and resources to navigate the ridiculous rules for Thailand entry procedure, which, are always changing from month to month. 

 

The COE, Insurance, covid tests, etc will put off most everyone other than business travelers, people with family, and die hards (who will likely be disappointed when they to actually come)

 

Vaccination card, pre-flight PCR test, and have these documents checked by the airline prior to boarding rather than the stupid COE/ThailandPass system and it would be alot better, and even that is a stretch. 

It's already a failure. People make their travel plans ahead of time. November 1st is now only two weeks away and confusion reigns. They're still telling people to use the tracking app that doesn't work. They said "no quarantine" for vaccinated travelers from selected countries but now say one to two days of quarantine and can't decide on which countries are actually on the list. If they wanted to save this high season, clear rules for entry would have been in place two months ago.

Damp squib at best I am afraid.

 

The initial flurry of activity will be returnees and family visitors in the main.

Thailand is not ready for opening.... Look at the western countries where people don't need to wear mask anymore, where they can eat and drink in a restaurant or pub what and when they want, where there is no thread of being quarantined if there are some people positive tested on the flight, and where they don;t need to do PCR tests....

and than coming to a country with poor vaccinated people ....It is way to early

I really wanted to fly to Thailand in November.  But for the citizens of my country, i need a Thai visa, which is produced for about 3 weeks (there is no Thai consulate  in my country).  Due to constantly changing rules, I canceled my trip this year.  I think even those people who do not need a visa, plan their vacation in advance.  Thailand is not a country that people might think of: Why don't I fly to Thailand tomorrow?

With the relaxation for travelers to return to the US who are vaccinated and test negative before flying, and then the posted 1 day quarantine upon return here in Thailand after also testing negative before flying and then testing upon arrival, along with registering for entry via a new app we shall see what occurs.  I have scheduled my Visit to the US for after the first of the year and then return here a month after arrival, fully refundable of course, pending that in the next 90 days the world does not collapse and the restrictions that have been lifted slammed back in place.

That will depend on what you mean by success.  5% of 2019 Tourist number? Maybe? But not likely for this high season.

I just think its going to be a long slow process. Whether the powers that be, or the many here who make a living of it, are expecting that I don't know. Perhaps not, from the prevailing narrative. There are many factors at play, not the least of which is that most people in the West have probably decided what they are doing this festive season, the Chinese aren't allowed out and there is no indication that Indians or Russians will be allowed in here. The long term decline of the traditional Thai tourism that most of us might have been used to, will continue. More girls on line, less lines of beer bars. The aim to get higher quality tourists is pure fantasy. Long term it will be less and less of them, and more and more cheap charlies from India, Russia and the Middle East. In the end they may get back to something approaching capacity but it will be less money all round. How they spin this, as it unravels is anyone's guess. And all that is provided they drop all the entry hoopla.

A failure.

 

Only the most committed tourists and long-stayers will come here as it's not really much of an improvement on the current situation - I'm afraid that many will find an easier alternative and permanently cross Thailand off their bucket list.

 

Pre-departure test and proof of double-vacination - full stop!

Depends what one considers successful.  Better than the abysmal failure of the sandboxes, one would hope.

Generate 1 million arrivals a month for the rest of high season 2021/22, very doubtful.  Enough to motivate investors to re-open or take over closed business, very doubtful.

All that without a future oops or yet another step backward / change in policy ... doubtful.

I personally can't see them getting 1 m a month till high season 2022/23.

 

It will be a colossal failure and help to push more farang-owned businesses into financial ruin. Only the most die-hard mongers will want to return under these conditions and no well-off tourists will.

In the long run the only tourists left will be the usual cheap charlies from Australia and the UK. Crikey!

Failure.

As long as

- the nightlife venues are closed
- a booze ban is in place
- there is any form of curfew
- there is any form of quarantine (the mandatory stay at a quarantine hotel waiting for the test result counts as quarantine)
- there are mandatory covid tests after arrival (with the chance of "enjoying" a 14 day hospital quarantine at own expenses, if tested positive)
- there are bureaucratic obstacles like COE, Thailand Pass, (* insert the name of the govts latest brain fart here *), .......
- there is mandatory wearing of masks also outside

not many will come.
 

 

It's a start.

The test on arrival is the real hurdle that needs to be removed.

Can't see anything else but a night or 2 forced quarantine until results arrive.

Who's going to police the newly arrived guests?

Short term quarantine hotels?

It's a logistical nightmare.

12 hour flight followed by possibly nightmare queues.

People exhausted and dehydrated.

Even replying to this topic makes you realise how much the world has changed in 18 months.

 

I think it will be a failure with regards to their own expectations. The pool of people who are willing to jump through all kinds of hoops is quite limited, as the sandbox experiments have shown.

 

Also, I'd imagine that anyone who is considering a holiday in Thailand right now must be quite fed up with Covid regulations back home at this point, which might or might not have ended already. They won't want to travel to a country that doesn't allow alcohol sales in restaurants and no entertainment whatsoever.

 

For returning Thais and expats, on the other hand, it's a welcome change. 

It appears that 60% of Thai people do not want the opening yet either, citing vaccination levels as the main reason why and getting them up to 70% of the whole country first.

 

Survey – 60% of Thai people believe country not ready to reopen to foreign arrivals

78% of respondents agree that 70% of the Thai population must be vaccinated before the opening of the borders to foreign arrivals

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/survey-60-of-thai-people-believe-country-not-ready-to-reopen-to-foreign-arrivals/

With no solid proof of what's happening in December or even November it's bound to fail. Do they not think about what they themselves have to do before they can leave home and a job to come on a two week holiday. Who wants all the stress just book somewhere else and come back next year.

 

It just takes Australia to open the gates, which should be shortly, and Thailand to include Australia, which I think they will, and not too outrageous airfares or accommodation prices and I'll be there. Lot of people have maximum annual leave, been stuck at home a long time, and therefore you'll get a fair few from Australia. 

Curfews, social distancing and no entertainment/alcohol = no tourists.

And when (if) they do get the restrictions lifted, it'll be a year before any tourists come.

What we should know about this usual kind of caper, regardless of success or failure, is that they won't learn from their experiences to tweak this and that to put themselves in a better place for the future. 

 

To be sure, the authoritarian mindset won't learn from practicalities and happenings to improve or repair on such ventures. 

It's an odd situation.

Virtually everything closed and restaurants not able to sell you a bottle of wine with your meal and don't forget the curfew.

I have a problem to see what will be first. Open everything when there are no tourists or let all the tourists come first when everything is either closed or restricted. Who will open first most likely with the cost for the first two or three months at their expense?

I'm glad it's not me making the decisions on how to go about it.

10 minutes ago, overherebc said:

It's an odd situation.

Virtually everything closed and restaurants not able to sell you a bottle of wine with your meal and don't forget the curfew.

I have a problem to see what will be first. Open everything when there are no tourists or let all the tourists come first when everything is either closed or restricted. Who will open first most likely with the cost for the first two or three months at their expense?

I'm glad it's not me making the decisions on how to go about it.

Had a great dinner tonight at the Wine Connection in Silom, only thing missing was a bottle of wine yet I was surrounded by hundreds of bottles that could not be un....wait for it...corked.

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Had a great dinner tonight at the Wine Connection in Silom, only thing missing was a bottle of wine yet I was surrounded by hundreds of bottles that could not be un....wait for it...corked.

SIS and her husband had a nice dinner a couple of nights ago and they rejected the first table they were shown to. He said it was bad enough not having a bottle of wine without having to sit 2 metres from and staring at the locked wine cabinet.

32 minutes ago, overherebc said:

It's an odd situation.

Virtually everything closed and restaurants not able to sell you a bottle of wine with your meal and don't forget the curfew.

I have a problem to see what will be first. Open everything when there are no tourists or let all the tourists come first when everything is either closed or restricted. Who will open first most likely with the cost for the first two or three months at their expense?

I'm glad it's not me making the decisions on how to go about it.

Correct.

Nick Dean was saying it would take a couple of years to make up lost earnings and rents that have had to be paid for his Pattaya bars.

He also said to come in December or January because by February things might be closed again!!!!!

I feel sorry for these people and yet many of them still seem to shrug their shoulders and get on with it.

All credit to them.

 

20 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Correct.

Nick Dean was saying it would take a couple of years to make up lost earnings and rents that have had to be paid for his Pattaya bars.

He also said to come in December or January because by February things might be closed again!!!!!

I feel sorry for these people and yet many of them still seem to shrug their shoulders and get on with it.

All credit to them.

 

I have a feeling that the 'openly obvious' dare I use the expresion sex oriented bars could be a thing of the past. Very likely the bars with the girls sitting outside may not be seen again. Will they survive with only the 'waitresses' inside and out of sight? I also reckon the pole dancing bars have gone for good. The underlying industry will still be there but in a different form. Can I say more behind closed doors?

Where would that leave places like Nana and Soi Cowboy?

They have to:

 

1) come up with a reasonable plan that tourists actually find acceptable (not done, yet), and

2) enact that plan in a way that subsequent tourists can trust (unlikely...what happens if a person tests positive and spreads the word about the mandatory 14-day hospital incarcertation...or, what if a person is on a plane with a person who tests positive and they get quarantined, too?)

 

This is October 16. No clear plan, yet. 

3 minutes ago, overherebc said:

I have a feeling that the 'openly obvious' dare I use the expresion sex oriented bars could be a thing of the past. Very likely the bars with the girls sitting outside may not be seen again. Will they survive with only the 'waitresses' inside and out of sight? I also reckon the pole dancing bars have gone for good. The underlying industry will still be there but in a different form. Can I say more behind closed doors?

Where would that leave places like Nana and Soi Cowboy?

Oh, all those places can just convert themselves into family-friendly restaurants like Chuck-E-Cheese or something. Didn't you hear? Thailand is going to attract families now instead of the kind of people who have traditionally enjoyed Thai night life. 

just a trickle of die hard  mongers  not enough to  bring stickman out of retirement is my guess