File photo: REUTERS

 

Two Thai banks have told the  government and the Tourism Authority of Thailand that their predictions for foreign tourists next year are way off the mark.

 

Effectively they have said their rose tinted views and assessments are pure fantasy - much as many netizens and ASEAN NOW posters predicted.

 

TAT chief Yutthasak had boldly stated that 20 million foreign tourists would come in 2022 and everything would be back to the 40 million pre-pandemic 'normal' by 2023. 

 

While Pipat Ratchakitprakan - the embattled minister for tourism and sports - was a little more conservative on December 15th but still reckoned up to 15 million tourists would come spending a whopping 1.8 TRILLION baht.

 

Both Krung Sri and the SCB's Economic Intelligence Center gave a very different assessment.

 

In fact the SCB's worst case scenario was that only 2.6 million tourists would come. 

 

Hardly the "droves" predicted by Pipat and Yutthasak. 

 

Krung Sri told the Thai media that 7.5 million foreign tourists would come and that the Thai Thiaw Thai - domestic market - would involve 90 million trips in 2021.

 

SCB's EIC reckoned that the best case scenario was 5.9 million and worst 2.6 million.

 

They were more buoyant on domestic tourism saying 170 million trips would be accomplished. 

 

They also predicted that Thai hotel occupancy would be 34% compared to this year's dismal 12%.

 

They reckoned that Bangkok would be the biggest hit with its large vaccine rollout key to attracting tourists back with Pattaya, Hua Hin, Cha-Am and other tourist places bringing up the rear. 

 

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That I believe.....

Your move TAT.

Remove ALL entry restrictions...and MAYBE there's a slim chance.  Look at Mexico.  But Mexico has the U.S. right next door...(300M potential travelers).  Thailand has China near....but China isn't as lenient with its people traveling.

https://embamex.sre.gob.mx/eua/index.php/en/2016-04-09-20-40-51/tourism/1762-tourism-statistics-2#:~:text=During the January – August 2021,the same period in 2020.&text=During the January – August 2021 period%2C 20.1 million international tourists,the same period in 2020.

I predict an average of 100,000 per month for 2022.  1.2M for the year and if it gets to 2M I'll eat my flip-flops and publish a photo of me doing it on TV.

 

You can't totally eradicate any activity or entity and change people's total perception of the world and expect a 50% recovery in 12 months.  The laws of nature, statistics, economies, and probably even gravity are self-evident in this respect.

 

 

Surprise, surprise, somebody finally deployed reason instead of constantly pulling fantasy figures out of a hat. Though I still believe that de-facto arrival numbers will be closer to the "worst case" projection than the "best case" scenario.

24 minutes ago, Willy Wombat said:

Your move TAT.

Fake news and a defamation suit?

38 minutes ago, webfact said:

Effectively they have said their rose tinted views and assessments are pure fantasy - much as many netizens and ASEAN NOW posters predicted.

Here's why tourism will never rebound in one picture.

Nothing will recover as long as people are met at the front gate by a team that looks like they came from a Level 4 Biosecurity Lab.

Tit for TAT

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

That I believe.....

that is because these bank guys get paid for being right.

 

if the TAT guys had to face any penalties for their BS projections, we might be able to have some small amount of faith in them

Isn't this the result the Thai Govt is looking for. Get rid of the low class tourists. Only the wealthy welcome. Why isn't someone like the TAT putting up their hand and saying for once their wish is being fullfilled.

In all seriousness the Thai government should be now looking at a whole new approach to getting tourism re-started. Dropping the pass farce for starters, and in my own view should be paying for tourists rt-pcr and first night quarantine hotel - paying out say 2,000 baht for this when the tourists will like be spending say 100,000 on their holiday makes economic sense to me.

Have they factored in the inevitable near zero figure for the first 3 or 4 months of next year, that is unavoidable  due to Omicron? 

 

Notwithstanding that the Greek alphabet hasn't been exhausted yet.

28 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

In all seriousness the Thai government should be now looking at a whole new approach to getting tourism re-started. Dropping the pass farce for starters, and in my own view should be paying for tourists rt-pcr and first night quarantine hotel - paying out say 2,000 baht for this when the tourists will like be spending say 100,000 on their holiday makes economic sense to me.

I agree but don't hold your breath.

15 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

Have they factored in the inevitable near zero figure for the first 3 or 4 months of next year, that is unavoidable  due to Omicron? 

 

Notwithstanding that the Greek alphabet hasn't been exhausted yet.

That should make the baht stronger.

15 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

Have they factored in the inevitable near zero figure for the first 3 or 4 months of next year, that is unavoidable  due to Omicron? 

 

Notwithstanding that the Greek alphabet hasn't been exhausted yet.

Yes there are 9 more to go till they get to Omega, unless the omit more letters due to them sounding like Chinese leaders! LOL

Get rid of the Thai Pass: the quarantine, the insurance, and the expensive tests. It's been said on this forum probably thousands of times before: the single most enticing thing about coming to Thailand in the past was the immediacy of everything. Get on a plane and go, be visa exempt, and be able to extend with ease. As long as the country rejects that old model and resembles a military camp, the longer it will be before people return in any significant numbers.

4 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Get rid of the Thai Pass: the quarantine, the insurance, and the expensive tests. It's been said on this forum probably thousands of times before: the single most enticing thing about coming to Thailand in the past was the immediacy of everything. Get on a plane and go, be visa exempt, and be able to extend with ease. As long as the country rejects that old model and resembles a military camp, the longer it will be before people return in any significant numbers.

"The immediacy of everything".

What a great expression to sum it up.

Use the Skyscanner app to book, pack carry on bag, get taxi to airport, get stamp at BKK and get a taxi outside arrivals.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

TAT chief Yutthasak had boldly stated that 20 million foreign tourists would come in 2022 and everything would be back to the 40 million pre-pandemic 'normal' by 2023. 

 

While Pipat Ratchakitprakan - the embattled minister for tourism and sports - was a little more conservative on December 15th but still reckoned up to 15 million tourists would come spending a whopping 1.8 TRILLION baht.

Two men that should be put out to grass.

Sound forecasting based on factual information.

5 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

Surprise, surprise, somebody finally deployed reason instead of constantly pulling fantasy figures out of a hat. Though I still believe that de-facto arrival numbers will be closer to the "worst case" projection than the "best case" scenario.

yeah it sort of feels strange to read this happening.. like "Toto we aint in Thailand anymore" if they continue on with fact and analytically based assessments then this forum will be starved of fodder and no doubt face its demise .... TAT announcements have been such a joy to read  in past, lets hope the voice of reason and factual assessment doesnt permeate far.   if any here want to recap some of the best the standout one to me was TAT announcing first expected visitor count by air when Phuket sandbox opened .. unfortunately their number far far  exceeded the total seat count of all carriers flying into Phuket in the designated time period.... ahhh the good old days 

 

Any projections in these unstable times are pure speculation. Rosy projections only reinforce incredulity of the official rhetoric and do not add to the search for a solution to the crisis. Only through an honest assessment and constructive policy will Thailand move forward. Kudos to the banks for their honesty, it is a fresh breeze in a world of bull…..

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Krung Sri told the Thai media that 7.5 million foreign tourists would come and that the Thai Thiaw Thai - domestic market - would involve 90 million trips in 2021.

 

SCB's EIC reckoned that the best case scenario was 5.9 million and worst 2.6 million.

2.5 to 7.5 million sounds realistic to me. Twice the number (15 million) in 2023 if they're lucky.

it's hopeless, 2022 will be like 2020 and 2021

As of 2016, the National Statistical Office reported there were more than 10,000 registered hotels. Of the number, 37% were in the South, 25% in the central provinces, 18% in the North, 12% in the Northeast and 7% in Bangkok. The office reported that hotels operated more than 457,000 rooms across the country.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1154987/thailand-length-of-stay-of-foreign-hotel-guests/

In 2019, an average length of stay for international hotel guests was around 9.26 days. In that same year, there were almost 40 million tourists who visited Thailand, with the majority of tourists coming from east Asia region.

 

457000 * 0.12 = 54840 hotel beds occupied per day. 

54840 * 365 = 20016600 per year

20016600 / 9, 26 = 2,16 Million.

The difference can then only be Dometic Tourism.

 

Cross check:

400000 international arrivals in 2021 * 9.26 days = 3704000 occupied beds.

 

457000 *365 = 166,8 Million 

total bed capacity

3,7 * 100 / 166,8 = 2,2 % 

Occupancy rate of the hotels by international tourists

 

That correlates well with the decline in international arrivals with minus 99% (base year 2019).

 

Personally, I do not believe that domestic tourism will be 10% of the total occupancy rate of 12% in 2021.

 

The actual occupancy rate is likely to be even lower

 

Thailand will never get its pre-covid tourists level. May be in the next 10 years may be not. 40 million is way too much for Thailand's infrastructure to handle. If lucky they will get two millions next year.

11 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

I predict an average of 100,000 per month for 2022.  1.2M for the year and if it gets to 2M I'll eat my flip-flops and publish a photo of me doing it on TV.

 

You can't totally eradicate any activity or entity and change people's total perception of the world and expect a 50% recovery in 12 months.  The laws of nature, statistics, economies, and probably even gravity are self-evident in this respect.

 

 

Rhat is about what I would guess.

We don't see the detail of the calculations. But one thi g: those returning fathers and businessmen will have returned, and what's left? A handful of tourists.

What is important is for the govt to publish its detailed policies and plans. For example, it wants to restrict tourism to the very rich, they will be few in number, but they'll spend a lot, and not interested in s*x tourism. So, what is the govt doing to find work for six or seven million?

Before shutting down an important sector of the economy, its best to have already started another . No?

 

I think major hotel groups would have a set of  idealistic and realistic figures. Their booking and cancellation figures must be very interesting to read.

This isn't a light switch that you're talking about, this is about a post pandemic recovery.  Planes are not ready to go, crews are not ready to go and hotels in Thailand now shuttered will take time to become feasible again.  There will be bottlenecks all over the place.

 

I urge you to again stop thinking about your own personal circumstance and look at the broader picture of tourism - real tourists on a care free holiday.  I don't see it happening before 2023 and even then that's a pipe dream.  IT's going to take time for all this to ramp up.  

 

As usual, Thailands behaviour appears to be ill informed, ill advised, and as silly as giving sugar to a baby.  Sure it tastes good but there's no substance there.  

5 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

it's hopeless, 2022 will be like 2020 and 2021

OF course it is.  How on earth are you going to get home now?  It's not just getting to Thailand that is the problem.  Shuttling through airports, getting apps, tests, uploading documents, and if you don't get your test in time you're hooped.  I've heard it all from the tourism industry with so many problems, missed flights, and people quarantining in hotels with covid and having no symptoms at all.  It is not a stress free way to go now and people realize that.  

When the pandemic ends that is when the recovery will start.  And it will take a little while and it won't be all at once.