As Thailand reopens, signs of economic recovery are visible

[Jonathan Fairfield]

 

The tourism industry is showing initial signs of recovery, but Thailand’s small businesses and households are still struggling to survive as uncertainty about COVID-19 gnaws at the local and global economy.

 

After Thailand reopened its doors on November 1 to fully vaccinated tourists, the number of arrivals has seen a steady, sharp increase.

 

The number of new arrivals between November 1 and 16 rose to 58,870, according to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration.

 

“The numbers are encouraging,” said Charl Kengchon, executive chairman at Kasikorn Research Centre.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/as-thailand-reopens-signs-of-economic-recovery-are-visible/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-11-21

 

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[Gsxrnz]

Anybody else have that deja vu feeling?

[Laughing Gravy]

What happened to Tourism doesn't really account for the fall or rise n the economy. I guess that was another lie.

[Kinnock]

Ferrari and Porsche dealers have noticed even more orders from the sons of the elite?

 

Meanwhile the repossession of Honda Scoopy's by the banks continues.

[ezzra]

Not sure what comment to post to some vague statement, like saying the sun has rose this morning and it looks like it's going to be a nice day...

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

What happened to Tourism doesn't really account for the fall or rise n the economy. I guess that was another lie.

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

[Walker88]

I just don't know what 'economic statistics' means anymore. I only know one would be wise not to put too much faith in them.

 

In 2019 Tourism was reported to be 18.8% of Thailand's economy. Okay, that was both foreign and domestic, but Covid put a hit on both. If I'm generous and say Tourism only took a 50% hit, that still would rob the economy of close to 10% of GDP. "Somehow", the reported fall in total GDP is a sliver of that, even though many factories also shut down due to Covid clusters. Lose tourism, temporarily lose factories, yet only lose a tiny bit of GDP? Wonders never cease.

 

Did rice exports surge? Did healthcare soar in terms of its impact on GDP? Maybe the changes to accounting rules (banks allowed to record imputed interest as revenue, even though borrowers were not paying) had a great impact?

 

When I walk along Silom and Sukhumvit or Beach Road and Second Road, and see blocks of businesses shuttered, I wonder how the economy made up for those losses so it did not impact the GDP bottom line. The cynic in me suspects some accounting shananigans, but I cannot find data to prove me right or wrong. Common sense seems to say one thing, but maybe there's stuff I'm missing.

 

I get the feeling that even if Tourism was downplayed in the 2020 and 2021 'official' GDP numbers, it will somehow and miraculously get added weight if arrivals suddenly jump.

 

I remember years ago when another regional nation---China---once released its 4th Quarter GDP number in mid-December. That suggested to me that I should put a lot less faith in officially issued data.

[Gottfrid]

Sure, there is a mass invasion coming up!

[Will B Good]

2 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The number of new arrivals between November 1 and 16 rose to 58,870

Around 3,500 a day.......14 flights a day?

 

Drop in the ocean.

[British Bulldog]

26 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

Around 3,500 a day.......14 flights a day?

 

Drop in the ocean.

... and they still say that most are business people or returnee's coming back to family's and alike

[atpeace]

53 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I just don't know what 'economic statistics' means anymore. I only know one would be wise not to put too much faith in them.

 

In 2019 Tourism was reported to be 18.8% of Thailand's economy. Okay, that was both foreign and domestic, but Covid put a hit on both. If I'm generous and say Tourism only took a 50% hit, that still would rob the economy of close to 10% of GDP. "Somehow", the reported fall in total GDP is a sliver of that, even though many factories also shut down due to Covid clusters. Lose tourism, temporarily lose factories, yet only lose a tiny bit of GDP? Wonders never cease.

 

Did rice exports surge? Did healthcare soar in terms of its impact on GDP? Maybe the changes to accounting rules (banks allowed to record imputed interest as revenue, even though borrowers were not paying) had a great impact?

 

When I walk along Silom and Sukhumvit or Beach Road and Second Road, and see blocks of businesses shuttered, I wonder how the economy made up for those losses so it did not impact the GDP bottom line. The cynic in me suspects some accounting shananigans, but I cannot find data to prove me right or wrong. Common sense seems to say one thing, but maybe there's stuff I'm missing.

 

I get the feeling that even if Tourism was downplayed in the 2020 and 2021 'official' GDP numbers, it will somehow and miraculously get added weight if arrivals suddenly jump.

 

I remember years ago when another regional nation---China---once released its 4th Quarter GDP number in mid-December. That suggested to me that I should put a lot less faith in officially issued data.

Contradicts most of the above posts but agree.  If inbound tourism amounted to anywhere close to 20% of GDP we would be experiencing larger drops in total GDP.  What amazes me, not being economist, is how such small changes(2-5%) in GDP cause recessions.

Edited November 21, 2021 by atpeace

[atpeace]

Looking at recent government projections, I think they are realistic with the exception of 2022 which I think well be much worse than expected.  Policies will adjust over the next 12 months and sadly insane tourism will return too soon.  This article and the 2022 forecast are just attempting to give unrealistic hope to those that are struggling.  Not a good plan IMO.

Edited November 21, 2021 by atpeace

[Skeptic7]

????

[NaaKap]

There was a man walking along a beach that was covered by thousands and thousands of starfish that had grounded themselves with the unusually high tide that night.  Also out for a morning walk a man following noticed every few steps the man in front of him would bend down, pick up a starfish and throw it into the ocean. When he caught up to him he said. That"s pointless, you won't make any difference, there are hundreds of thousands of them. To that statement the man bent over and picked up a starfish and threw it into the ocean.. Turned and stated.  Made a difference to that one.!  

[Brickbat]

It’s back to the sleaze , pollution and grime. Yikes! Oh mighty virus, we need your humbling attributes minus the tragedy of innocent deaths 

[alphonse]

3 minutes ago, Brickbat said:

It’s back to the sleaze , pollution and grime. Yikes! Oh mighty virus, we need your humbling attributes minus the tragedy of innocent deaths 

Or the tragedy of all those thousands now jobless and needing to scrape through.

[Millcx]

3 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

Anybody else have that deja vu feeling?

Everything should be back to normal by Aug 2024 then ?… Will the rich Indians arrive by then .. So I can plan ahead “;0)

[Millcx]

1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

Sure, there is a mass invasion coming up!

 55555555555.. Yeah Right “;0)

[newnative]

Dismal figures.  And, how many were actual tourists and not returning Thais and expats?

[EvetsKram]

and yet inflation is sky rocketing here. I see everyday prices jumping a lot. Friday bread cost 32 baht, today 40

[thaibook]

Below are the GDP statistics.  Last = 2020, Previous = 2019.   PPP is purchasing power parity to enable mor emeaningful inter-country comparisons.  Tourism is not an individual component.  Clearly it has contributions from almost all of the main components, administration, construction, transport, utilities, etc.  I would be interested to see how the aggregation of the shares of the other components to derive the contribution of tourism to GDP.  Does nayone have that?

 

 

Related	Last	Previous	Unit	Reference
GDP	501.79	544.26	USD Billion	Dec/20
GDP per capita	6199.19	6617.54	USD	Dec/20
GDP per capita PPP	17286.87	18453.47	USD	Dec/20
GDP From Utilities	66986.00	77331.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Transport	136829.00	126500.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Public Administration	139246.00	133855.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Mining	46763.00	51950.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Manufacturing	646959.00	704248.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Construction	80613.00	86918.00	THB Million	Sep/21
GDP From Agriculture	2337023.00	2389401.00	THB Million	Sep/21

[rocky123]

The elite, new world order, agenda21/30 is in full swing, globally. This whole c19 is not about controlling a virus, . WakeyWakey sleepy heads. The clock is ticking

 

[Chris.B]

"Revenue generated from tourism accounted for as much as 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the pre-pandemic period."  https://www.thaipbsworld.com/as-thailand-reopens-signs-of-economic-recovery-are-visible/

 

 

So that's recovery for 20% of the economy but what about the other 80%? What drivel they come out with.

 

[soi3eddie]

Beware: Spin doctors at work.

[thaibook]

According to the statistics compiled by the World Tourism Organisation international tourism expenditures in Thailand in current US$ were 16.852 billion in 2019. That year GDP was 544.26 billion so international tourism spending accounted for 3.1% of GDP. Of course entities in Thailand spent money on utilities, transport, construction, agriculture etc to facilitate the tourism spending but to include those figures would be double counting. Similar to a shop adding the cost of its raw materials to its sales and saying that total is its turnover.

 

 

[Xonax]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I just don't know what 'economic statistics' means anymore. I only know one would be wise not to put too much faith in them.

 

In 2019 Tourism was reported to be 18.8% of Thailand's economy. Okay, that was both foreign and domestic, but Covid put a hit on both. If I'm generous and say Tourism only took a 50% hit, that still would rob the economy of close to 10% of GDP. "Somehow", the reported fall in total GDP is a sliver of that, even though many factories also shut down due to Covid clusters. Lose tourism, temporarily lose factories, yet only lose a tiny bit of GDP? Wonders never cease.

 

Did rice exports surge? Did healthcare soar in terms of its impact on GDP? Maybe the changes to accounting rules (banks allowed to record imputed interest as revenue, even though borrowers were not paying) had a great impact?

 

When I walk along Silom and Sukhumvit or Beach Road and Second Road, and see blocks of businesses shuttered, I wonder how the economy made up for those losses so it did not impact the GDP bottom line. The cynic in me suspects some accounting shananigans, but I cannot find data to prove me right or wrong. Common sense seems to say one thing, but maybe there's stuff I'm missing.

 

I get the feeling that even if Tourism was downplayed in the 2020 and 2021 'official' GDP numbers, it will somehow and miraculously get added weight if arrivals suddenly jump.

 

I remember years ago when another regional nation---China---once released its 4th Quarter GDP number in mid-December. That suggested to me that I should put a lot less faith in officially issued data.

Didn't you know, that Thailand has two different economies?  (1) The official economy where profits are taxed and (2) the unofficial economy where untaxed profits goes directly into the owners pockets. I guess that tourism must belong to the unofficial economy.

[Flink]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

Well, here they seem to count only the money tourists actually pay personally to Thais as part of the tourist element of GDP. They don't seem to include all the support industries, food production, transport, and everything else that is needed to provide the services the tourists need. Just because you're a rice farmer in Isaan doesn't mean you're not dependant on tourism. Without tourist dollars your customers can't afford to buy tour product. The tourism factor of the GDP is far larger than they want to admit. It's like when they shut down a car manufacturing plant. The loss of jobs at the plant is small compared to the job losses elsewhere in the materials production companies who now have no market for their goods and must completely renovate their production system in order to create new products to sell. 

[dogfish180]

5 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The number of new arrivals between November 1 and 16 rose to 58,870, according to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration.

Rose from what? 58,869?….........What a meaningless statement!

[moe666]

I guess my neighbor thinks it is going to get better she has put up a for rent sign on her town house which  has been empty for more than a year. There is more activity around the old town in Chiang Mai. But that could be just the increase of Thai tourist up from Bangkok. There are more farangs around than say 6 months ago or even 3 months. More out on rented motorbikes and the aimless walk of a tourist is apparent.

[Harveyboy]

53 minutes ago, EvetsKram said:

and yet inflation is sky rocketing here. I see everyday prices jumping a lot. Friday bread cost 32 baht, today 40

yes I've noticed prices on most things soaring i do the shopping as the bride has to work so tend to notice it more