My /Your best Guess for Pattaya's re-opening

[Leaver]

41 minutes ago, Caldera said:

As far as tourism in Thailand is concerned, I think this year is pretty much toast. So I'm going to say a meaningful reopening of Pattaya won't happen before next year. Hopefully early next year, but it's too early to predict that.

 

You could see 2021 was gone a few months ago.

 

It's what happens from now, until the end of 2021, that will determine when Thailand / Pattaya opens up in 2022, or possibly 2023.  

[kinyara]

Assuming like everywhere else in the world worse more vaccination resistant strains don't emerge, looking at current vaccination progress on a national scale, which is what matters for an effective reopening of Pattaya, I think a realistic target would be the middle of 2022.  

 

I'd expect the level of reopening to be slow and steady in line with the level of returning tourism numbers, until confidence in and the ease of travel returns globally. Anybody's guess how long that will take, maybe a couple of years. Pattaya has in it's favour a hardcore of returning visitors/part-year residents who will kickstart the recovery at the first opportunity they get, probably providing something of a modest pick-up to the end of 2022.

 

We are already seeing favourable supply/demand economics with an improving exchange rate from the visitors perspective and the surplus of available accomodation  ensuring good deals will be available.  On the macro-level I would expect a government desperate to generate significant tourist revenue again will find a way to make medium stay visas more customer friendly, ie no requirement to leave the country during a 6 month stay as they will/ ( should )  want the tourist spend to remain in country.

 

Thailand won't have the luxury of record visitor numbers that we've seen each year to 2019, so having geared itself so heavily to the mass market volume tourist model I'd expect a few years where Pattaya/Thailand returns to a better value location than we've seen in recent times.

 

 

 

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, kinyara said:

Pattaya has in it's favour a hardcore of returning visitors/part-year residents who will kickstart the recovery at the first opportunity they get,

I agree, but as this drags on, what, exactly, do they think they will be returning to?  

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

I agree, but as this drags on, what, exactly, do they think they will be returning to?  

Exactly Leaver

 

Too many thinking there is going to be a flick of a switch and all back to normal. 90% has gone bust already. Not only that but you will never see the same interactions between Thai Girls and farangs again for a generation. The vast majority are terrified now

Going to be a decade to get back to 2019 levels of overall tourism in Thailand

[kinyara]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

I agree, but as this drags on, what, exactly, do they think they will be returning to?  

On the positive side I would hope they are coming back to s country and city that values their custom a bit more rather than taking it for granted, which I would hope translates into better service levels across the board from arrival to departure. . I think a reset was needed and this situation has provided a massive wake up call for the tourist sector and Thailand generally.   I'm sure those of us still here have noticed a bit more of a friendly attitude as those businesses still open fight to stay open. I've had positive customer service experiences in just regular stores that were of a level I was pleasantly surprised and impressed with. Improvements in all aspects of customer service during the holiday or trip could be the biggest benefit.

 

I don't know many regular visitors who have enjoyed the transformation of the city streets into a glorified bus park with the noise , pollution and gridlock that it has brought in the last few years pre-covid. Those that remained cite that as one of the main benefits to reduced tourist numbers. Hopefully construction levels around town will take a natural breather for a couple of years with a sluggish economy and over supply of residential and commercial property, similar benefits to less traffic. Both aspects should make for a more pleasant environment to holiday in.

 

The big potential negative I can see is an increased level of street crime, it's not happening now simply because there is no one here to target and the criminal element departed to the provinces long ago when the city emptied. Unfortunately it will take a major change in attitude of local law enforcement from " stop and fleece " to " serve and protect " to limit the damage and they could actually be part of the problem.  How much free reign the criminals/scammers get could have a big impact.

 

Overall initially things will be subdued and the central area will visually bear the economic scars of recession for a while with less businesses open, empty premises for sale/rent etc. There was a massive oversupply of similar businesses so however big the initial tourist pie is, it won't be spread so thin as before. The one guarantee Pattaya always provides is you'll still never be short of places to eat, drink and be merry. Existing businesses an new entrants may well have to up their game to attract lower tourist numbers, another positive for those coming.

 

Overall I'm optimistic that a recovering Pattaya at a less saturated level of activity than peak pre-Covid tourism has the potential to provide a better overall experience for its customers, only time will tell whether it capitalised on the opportunity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kinyara]

^ I've deliberately not commented on the civil/political conflict which seems inevitable, in the past Pattaya life seems to continue from the action happening in Bangkok.

[hotandsticky]

31 minutes ago, kinyara said:

^ I've deliberately not commented on the civil/political conflict which seems inevitable, in the past Pattaya life seems to continue from the action happening in Bangkok.

 

 

....and will continue to do so.

 

Even in Bangkok such activities rarely impact on tourism. Yellow shirts blocking the airport was one such event - and the red shirts burning Central World was a bit of a nuisance.

[fredscats]

Post pandemic,prices will rise alarmingly,especially Thailand  Taxes up,farang will get strung up.       Inflation will put interest rates way up,loans become dearer to service,airline charges becoming expensive as airlines attempt to recover losses,all in all not a rosy picture

[Leaver]

19 hours ago, Chivas said:

Exactly Leaver

 

Too many thinking there is going to be a flick of a switch and all back to normal. 90% has gone bust already. Not only that but you will never see the same interactions between Thai Girls and farangs again for a generation. The vast majority are terrified now

Going to be a decade to get back to 2019 levels of overall tourism in Thailand

 

Not sure the the regular mongers will be happy with having just the surviving 10% of businesses to play in.

 

I don't think it will be a decade, but for sure more than 5 five years.  

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, kinyara said:

On the positive side I would hope they are coming back to s country and city that values their custom a bit more rather than taking it for granted, which I would hope translates into better service levels across the board from arrival to departure. . I think a reset was needed and this situation has provided a massive wake up call for the tourist sector and Thailand generally.   I'm sure those of us still here have noticed a bit more of a friendly attitude as those businesses still open fight to stay open. I've had positive customer service experiences in just regular stores that were of a level I was pleasantly surprised and impressed with. Improvements in all aspects of customer service during the holiday or trip could be the biggest benefit.

 

I don't know many regular visitors who have enjoyed the transformation of the city streets into a glorified bus park with the noise , pollution and gridlock that it has brought in the last few years pre-covid. Those that remained cite that as one of the main benefits to reduced tourist numbers. Hopefully construction levels around town will take a natural breather for a couple of years with a sluggish economy and over supply of residential and commercial property, similar benefits to less traffic. Both aspects should make for a more pleasant environment to holiday in.

 

The big potential negative I can see is an increased level of street crime, it's not happening now simply because there is no one here to target and the criminal element departed to the provinces long ago when the city emptied. Unfortunately it will take a major change in attitude of local law enforcement from " stop and fleece " to " serve and protect " to limit the damage and they could actually be part of the problem.  How much free reign the criminals/scammers get could have a big impact.

 

Overall initially things will be subdued and the central area will visually bear the economic scars of recession for a while with less businesses open, empty premises for sale/rent etc. There was a massive oversupply of similar businesses so however big the initial tourist pie is, it won't be spread so thin as before. The one guarantee Pattaya always provides is you'll still never be short of places to eat, drink and be merry. Existing businesses an new entrants may well have to up their game to attract lower tourist numbers, another positive for those coming.

 

Overall I'm optimistic that a recovering Pattaya at a less saturated level of activity than peak pre-Covid tourism has the potential to provide a better overall experience for its customers, only time will tell whether it capitalised on the opportunity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good post.

 

We saw in places like Phuket, after the tsunami, that the rip offs, price gouging, bill padding, extortion, and assaults on tourists, returned quite quickly.  I don't think there will be a new found appreciation for farang, or their money, post covid.  

 

In my opinion, over the next 2 years, businesses catering for expats, and running a good operation, will survive.  Those targeting tourists, as you say, will be fighting over what few that may be about.  

[i84teen]

Pattaya needs to open up YESTERDAY but unfortunately covid is ever present and NOT improving in the transmission numbers.

The various doom and gloom propagandists are alight with predictions of much worsening predicament due to covid, and the current situation in Thailand and other locations is not surprising and I do recall warnings & predictions of the current dire situation globally with a few bright spots scattered around the globe.

It's a juggling act, finding a balance with economically reviving the economy and managing pandemic crisis. Many lives depend on Pattaya economy for sustenance, especially tourist dollars.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004647

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, i84teen said:

Many lives depend on Pattaya economy for sustenance, especially tourist dollars.

 

Right now, many lives depend on being vaccinated.  

[mstevens]

I think a really major problem Pattaya faces is the girls being scared to contract Covid and not being interested in going with customers.

 

I am not in Pattaya but a couple of friends who live there year-round tell me that many girls have left Pattaya. Most because they couldn't make money but plenty are scared of contracting Covid and figure they are safe back in their village. Those girls who have remained in Pattaya will happily go on cam streams to make money but many won't meet anyone in person as they are scared of contracting Covid.

 

When the bars do eventually open, whenever that may be, there will be men from all over the world inside bars which are small, and women meeting many men from all over the world every day. Even if everyone is vaccinated, there will still be Covid infections, especially given that some vaccines aren't that effective. It all makes me think the future of Pattaya, at least as we knew it, is very, very uncertain.

 

[balo]

On 8/14/2021 at 9:37 PM, mstevens said:

I think a really major problem Pattaya faces is the girls being scared to contract Covid and not being interested in going with customers.

 

I am not in Pattaya but a couple of friends who live there year-round tell me that many girls have left Pattaya. Most because they couldn't make money but plenty are scared of contracting Covid and figure they are safe back in their village. Those girls who have remained in Pattaya will happily go on cam streams to make money but many won't meet anyone in person as they are scared of contracting Covid.

 

When the bars do eventually open, whenever that may be, there will be men from all over the world inside bars which are small, and women meeting many men from all over the world every day. Even if everyone is vaccinated, there will still be Covid infections, especially given that some vaccines aren't that effective. It all makes me think the future of Pattaya, at least as we knew it, is very, very uncertain.

 

If you're a young girl,. and can earn the same amount of money or more going online in front of a camera instead of having sex with an old pig every day, what do you choose? 

The internet revolution already made sure of that, covid or not. 

 

[Rimmer]

A personal attack has been removed:

 

25) No public discussion is allowed with regard to other forum members

[Leaver]

20 hours ago, balo said:

If you're a young girl,. and can earn the same amount of money or more going online in front of a camera instead of having sex with an old pig every day, what do you choose? 

The internet revolution already made sure of that, covid or not. 

 

And she doesn't even need to be in Pattaya to do it.  She can broadcast from a room in an Issan house, and should a punter throw a lot of money at her for meeting her in Phuket, Samui, Pattaya etc for a 2 week holiday, Cha-Ching.  

[Henryford]

On 8/8/2021 at 9:37 PM, Leaver said:

 

Not sure the the regular mongers will be happy with having just the surviving 10% of businesses to play in.

 

I don't think it will be a decade, but for sure more than 5 five years.  

I agree. The great thing about Pattaya during 2005-2015 was it covered the whole city. You could play in Walking Street, Beach Road, Sois 6,7,8, Sois 1,2,3, Drinking St, Naklua, Soi Buakhao, Soi Diana etc etc.  If in the future it's just a few bars in Soi Buakhao it will just not be the same.

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, Henryford said:

I agree. The great thing about Pattaya during 2005-2015 was it covered the whole city. You could play in Walking Street, Beach Road, Sois 6,7,8, Sois 1,2,3, Drinking St, Naklua, Soi Buakhao, Soi Diana etc etc.  If in the future it's just a few bars in Soi Buakhao it will just not be the same.

 

Sadly, western tourists and expats will lack choice and variety for the first few years, until confidence returns in Thailand's tourism industry.   

[balo]

36 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

Sadly, western tourists and expats will lack choice and variety for the first few years, until confidence returns in Thailand's tourism industry.   

Maybe they can arrange day or weekend trips to Isaan villages,  and get entertained. 

[Leaver]

23 hours ago, balo said:

Maybe they can arrange day or weekend trips to Isaan villages,  and get entertained. 

 

Yes, to watch the rice grow.  ????  

[2009]

God, who knows

 

At this point I think Elon Musk is right: only the "at risk" people should be made to stay at home. The rest should be free to go about as normal.

 

If your are low risk for severe covid illness and still want to stay at home, up to you, by all means. 

 

And if the high risk people don't want to stay at home. Up to them. It's their risk.

 

 

 

[gk10012001]

On 7/20/2021 at 4:29 AM, GrandPapillon said:

December 2022, if things go well ????

 

it's only 18 months away, plenty of time to prepare for a grand opening

I really was plannng on punching out last December after finishing a very lucrative contract engineering job.  But just too many hassles to get to Thailand.  Now I have another good and actually stimulating contract job starting in October at a place and with people I worked with before which was a great experience.  So, methinks one final dosh up to my medicare age of 65 next year, and that is OK.   I have about 45 days to kill before the job starts and normally I would have jetted off to Thailand this weekend.  But there is no way things can be arranged that fast like in the old days.   In the past, I have flown to Thailand on one day notice!  Now, I doubt I can get there in less than three weeks between the COE, extra insurance, flights through countries I prefer to avoid, paying for hotels in advance, etc..

[FridgeMagnet1]

I was talking to a hotelier who has now written off the rest of this year and is looking at April 2022.

 

miserable times 

[DrPhibes]

On 7/10/2021 at 9:44 AM, Doctor Tom said:

Hi everyone.  New (ish) to this forum, but lived in Thailand for a number of years, just outside the City of Pattaya.  My uninformed take is that it will never return to what it was pre covid. Yes, some things will re open, some bars and some of the ex shop owners will re appear, but by no means all.  Some of the ladies presently plying their trade online will continue to do so and not return to the old bar scene, or indeed the FL way of making a living, online is too easy for them. Number of restaurants will be half what it was and investment in new hotels and condos wills stop for many years.  From my selfish point of view, that makes it a much better prospect for the future and as nicer place to live.  As I say, largely uninformed, apart from talking to some locals about how they see it.  

Fair, levelheaded response,  I agree.  A deal killer for most tourists is the COE (kinda bitch to get) and the 2 weeks of quarantine if still around.

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, 2009 said:

And if the high risk people don't want to stay at home. Up to them. It's their risk.

Simply a blinkered and foolish view. 

[Henryford]

12 hours ago, DrPhibes said:

Fair, levelheaded response,  I agree.  A deal killer for most tourists is the COE (kinda bitch to get) and the 2 weeks of quarantine if still around.

And the Covid tests which if failed mean 2 weeks in a hospitel.

[jomtienisgood]

15 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes, to watch the rice grow.  ????  

You forgot the buffaloes and little village shops.... All local attractions.. ????

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed

[HashBrownHarry]

22 hours ago, DrPhibes said:

Fair, levelheaded response,  I agree.  A deal killer for most tourists is the COE (kinda bitch to get) and the 2 weeks of quarantine if still around.

CoE is really not that difficult.

[3NUMBAS]

what do we mean by open??

a trickle or critical mass ??

 

2 yrs or 15 yrs