Picture: Sanook

 

The chief of the Department of Disease Control Dr Opas Kankawinpong gave the latest predictions for the upcoming months based on SEIR mathematical modeling. 

 

Despite the current lockdown measures in place already it made for the stark realisation that when it comes to the pandemic as a whole in Thailand the worst is yet to come. 

 

Dr Opas said that without lockdown measures there would be 40,000 cases a day, reported Sanook yesterday.

 

The peak would be September 14th.

 

With lockdown effective to 20-25% over a month there would be 30,000 cases a day.

 

The worst numbers would be in August. 

 

With lockdown effectiveness of 20-25% over two months cases could be brought down to 20,000 a day.

 

This was the best case scenario he could offer.

 

As far as deaths go he said that without lockdown this would be 500 a day with the worst day predicted as September 28th. 

 

With lockdown effective 20-25% for one month the number of deaths would be reduced to 400 per day with the peak coming in the period around 26th October.

 

But Dr Opas asssessed with vaccine being given to the elderly, those with seven health conditions and 12 week pregnant women plus lockdown effectiveness of 20-25% over two months this would mean the death toll could be kept down to 100 per day. 

 

He said that locking down today didn't mean instant improvement, there would still be an initial rise. Only after 2-4 weeks is it possible to see a lockdown's effectiveness. 

 

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He's not singing from the same hymn sheet as Prayut !

But then, what does this fella know ? He is only an expert, not a Czar !

"The peak would be September 14th. ...

The worst numbers would be in August."

that for me looks contradictory.

 

The title should be corrected to "and 400-500 deaths per day" 

 A face shield ,2 masks and a bottle of 70% !

 I don't leave home without them !

Come to think of it, we hardly ever leave 

Well the 'lockdown' has done nothing so I would go with the worst case senario.

The penny has finally dropped....

From another Op running the lockdown has kept the numbers below 45k a day and reduced deaths.  Now this Op where the same doctor, Dr, Opas says:

56 minutes ago, webfact said:

Dr Opas said that without lockdown measures there would be 40,000 cases a day, reported Sanook yesterday.

 

The peak would be September 14th.

 

With lockdown effective to 20-25% over a month there would be 30,000 cases a day.

 

The worst numbers would be in August. 

 

With lockdown effectiveness of 20-25% over two months cases could be brought down to 20,000 a day.

Why does he not just make one daily briefing with a singular statement that allows for all officials to have input into rather than these different contradictory Ops and differing information.  Would have, Could have, Should, have, but then who really knows, all are guesstimates and personal views which I am sure TAT will be along shortly to tell us Millions of tourists will be coming starting in October because the lockdowns worked.

'The Thai government has outlawed sharing news that “causes public fear”, even if such reports are true, as officials face mounting criticism over their handling of the pandemic.'  - From this morning's Guardian.  This guy is in hot water!

5 minutes ago, mikebell said:

'The Thai government has outlawed sharing news that “causes public fear”, even if such reports are true, as officials face mounting criticism over their handling of the pandemic.'  - From this morning's Guardian.  This guy is in hot water!

No, they won't dare do a thing because they all know what's coming, every one of them.

Does this model even take into account that a massive number of infections haven't been counted within the last weeks?

29 minutes ago, ukrules said:

The penny has finally dropped....

They didnt hear it

31 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Well the 'lockdown' has done nothing so I would go with the worst case senario.

Because other than night curfew discouraging drinking and partying at night, this is not a lockdown. There are more cars on the roads in rush hours than before lockdowns, so nobody cares about work from home order, supermarkets are packed with people. I was going up Lat Phrao to get my jab on Thursday and passed by that wet market just before Chok Chai 4... the number of people at and around the market was unbelievable. Social distancing didn't exist and some still think chin warmers are adequate mask replacements.

 

So yes, I would also go with something very close to worst case scenario. As you just can't fix stupid.

A post with unattributed statistics has been removed as well as the replies.  Please provide a link to the source of information when posting (unless the source is not allowed on this forum).

 

A post with an unattributed chart has been removed, please provide a link to the source of information when posting. 

Thailand soon to be the new hub of the pandemic overtaking all previous countries....

1 hour ago, webfact said:

With lockdown effective to 20-25% over a month there would be 30,000 cases a day.

The optimism with this guy is off the charts.

14 minutes ago, Anythingleft? said:

Thailand soon to be the new hub of the pandemic overtaking all previous countries....

Not really. The other countries may have closed the books on the previous wave, but a new wave is spreading big in the West, and actually all over the World. Their numbers will also go up tremendously very soon. In US, mandatory masks are back, with strong pushback from businesses, as the infections of Delta are rising. In Europe, Spain and Greece are hotspots exporting Delta all over the continent. You hear of spikes in Japan, Korea, Australia... Even China has the biggest outbreak in Nanjing (apparently larger than Wuhan, according to BBC). So whatever numbers Thailand has, maybe it is temporarily moving it up on the scale, but others will very soon overtake again.

I said  a few days ago that this hasn't even started yet 

 

so I agree with the the DDC assessment

 

stay safe folks - there is nowhere to hide from this virus and little chance of protection any time soon.

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Why does he not just make one daily briefing with a singular statement that allows for all officials to have input into rather than these different contradictory Ops and differing information.

Most of them want to feel powerful and priviledged - very few actually make any sense - no wonder there is so much speculation and lack of understanding with the public when officials contradict each other changing from day to day - and they wonder why the public are critical 

Thats one of the most confusing articles I have read, I am still not sure what it says.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

With lockdown effective 20-25% for one month

What does that mean?

 

75% to 80% of people can ignore it?

20-25% of people of Thailand?
20-25% of days in a month?

 

I am lost

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

Does this model even take into account that a massive number of infections haven't been counted within the last weeks?

I'd say yes. This doctor tries to produce realistic predictions

 From the OP

"The peak would be September 14th."

 

From yesterday's news

 

 

Somebody needs to worry about being had up for fake news.

 

 

Over the past month the doubling time has been around 3 weeks so without further intervention I would expect that we will easily exceed the predicted 40k per day by Sept 14 (2 doublings from the near-20k we are seeing today). 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

An inflammatory post has been removed. 

50 minutes ago, smedly said:

I said  a few days ago that this hasn't even started yet 

 

so I agree with the the DDC assessment

 

stay safe folks - there is nowhere to hide from this virus and little chance of protection any time soon.

No place to hide? Even with 3,155 total cases since April 1, with a population of about 1.8 million that's a pretty low % province-wide. And the BP has said most all the big spike increase comes from locals relocating from the dark red zones.

https://www.khonkaenlink.info/read/110293/

1 hour ago, NotYourBusiness said:

Just wondering what definition we are using for "deaths from covid"? So if I had a positive covid test three weeks ago, and today I die in a motorcycle crash, what is my cause of death?

You would be reported as dying as a result of a road traffic accident.

3 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

He's not singing from the same hymn sheet as Prayut !

But then, what does this fella know ? He is only an expert, not a Czar !

But he is a Thai Expert.

 

He was making reasonable sense until:

 

But Dr Opas asssessed with vaccine being given to the elderly, those with seven health conditions and 12 week pregnant women plus lockdown effectiveness of 20-25% over two months this would mean the death toll could be kept down to 100 per day. 

 

The death toll is already over 100 per day. He says the worst is in, well he gives August and September as two possibilities, so the worst death rates will be late September to early October, allowing for the lag effect.

 

Saying deaths would be kept below even the current number is pure propaganda and/or unwillingness to share bad news. Either is not good in assessing a medical emergency.

If these numbers come to fruition I think it's time to get the hell out of Thailand gentlemen and ladies (I mention ladies last as there are hardly any here)

1 hour ago, bunnydrops said:

Thai habit of pronouncing the r sound as  L

Same as Chinese. Not surprising.

One of the causes of miscommunication with my wife.