Just as realistic as me getting the money back I borrowed to my Mia Noi.

That's Numberwang!

Oh. I see why immigration officers suddenly became so cocky. 

 

Every time one of these guys give out rosy forecast, immigration officers become cockier and cockier. 

 

Not the right attitude people want to see from civil servants, especially when ordinary civilians are suffering from lack of tourism in 2020 & 2021 high seasons.

 

Isn't it a bit early to celebrate?

1 hour ago, Will B Good said:

No.....that is 500 seats on each flight.

Yes, and the estimations are very low. According to recent research to can travel on one seat. That would be an estimated tourism of 36 million.

8 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Yes, and the estimations are very low. According to recent research to can travel on one seat. That would be an estimated tourism of 36 million.

Unless it's this guy ????

 

30 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Just as realistic as me getting the money back I borrowed to my Mia Noi.

Wait what, is that possible lol

1 hour ago, aussiexpat said:

What was great about Thailand is it was cheap so your money goes 3 times as far

Agreed 100%

 

1 hour ago, aussiexpat said:

all changed in 2019 when a Big Mac meal now costs more than in Australia or US ????

Shouldn't be eating that stuff.  It will kill you, in my humble opinion.

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

On the other hand,

Roadside Moo Ping is 5bht a stick.

Four of those and 5bht of sticky rice and I'm stuffed full!

 

Back to the OP, I predict less than 5M, assuming the 1 night quarantine, test on arrival, Thailand pass, and compulsory insurance are dropped.

even in Central Chidlom, a stick of moo ping is 15 baht and there is no fat, just lean meat

3 hours ago, webfact said:

November would see 100,000 foreign arrivals, he noted.

 

But next month through to March there would be 300,000 foreign tourists a month

OK, I do not believe it but hey lets run with it. 100k this month, 300k next month and 300k Jan to March, that leaves 16,7 million tourists in the last 9 months of the year , or 1.85 million a month.

 

Quite how he believe this figure - which will grow more every month with lack of arrivals - is mindboggling !

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Many airlines were now beating a path to Thailand's door he said noting that Emirates even wanted to land their A380 airbusses. 

 

"That's 500 tourists on each flight," enthused Yutthasak.

 yes, 500 seats NOT occupied ones

 

What are they smoking in TAT??  Oh, that's right, they legalized Kratom, so that must be a mandatory smoke for all the TAT executives to make these absurd predictions................I'm getting more popcorn, this nis getting good, best laugh I have had all day, and I Ian't smoking anything.

It seems to me that the terms foreign arrival and foreign tourist are frequently confounded by Thai officials.  It would not be difficult to at least make an attempt at differentiating the two.

 

For 2022 the best case is 18 million foreign tourists spending 1,050,000 million baht (assuming he uses American and not British definitions of billion and trillion), so just over 58,000 baht each.  The worst case is 10 million foreign tourists spending an average of 62,000 baht each.  The average spending numbers are not that different yet but therein lies the dilemna, seek to attract more people who on average spend less or fewer high spenders?  If the latter the forecast tourist numbers will languish but spending will increase.  The choice will clearly have significant impact on public and private investment decisions, of both infrastructure, attractions, and education/training (language skills), employment, and GDP.  There does nto seem to be a coherent policy nor even a comparative analysis of the alternatives.

 

Any volunteers?  Could eitehr earn you residency or the boot.  

They can make up the fantasy numbers they want, let's be real, with Cambodia opening fully on Nov 15th, why would a real tourist go through all the Thailand pass, paperwork, insurance, and etc, when they can enter Cambodia, take a 15 onsite test, and go. Besides all the bars are open, and Phnom Penh is getting busy again. Thailand , take notes, this is how you open a country. 

1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

Yes, and the estimations are very low. According to recent research to can travel on one seat. That would be an estimated tourism of 36 million.

Quote

Many years ago, my wife worked in Bangkok for an (un-named) airline GSA.  Her boss was at the airport to supervise check in and boarding.   It was found that there was one more passenger than seats.  She told him "sit in the lavatory and come out after take-off.  The cabin staff will find you a seat."

 

 

Atleast it keeps the bargirl’s hopes up

They probably arrived at that figure by taking the total tourist numbers for 2019 and then subtracting the number who visited Pattaya, as that seems to be the current masterplan, open the country, but leave Pattaya to the homeless and the pigeons.

Idiot.
They ain’t coming pal. International travel is changed forever. You have too many obstacles. It is too expensive. There is little fun to be had. You are no longer special. People are going elsewhere. 

They just keep dreaming. Nothing is going to happen until all restrictions are lifted and business is back to normal. Who wants to spend holidays in a country when you may be arrested when drinking a beer in the restaurant?

No Bars No Booze No, bless their cotton panty, Entertainment.
Why would you want to come to Pattaya?

15 minutes ago, Brickbat said:

Atleast it keeps the bargirl’s hopes up

Be interested to know if the single guys are getting better crumpet due to lack of customers !

Hey what drugs are they using please csn i have some too ????????????????

Insert a ball gag into TAT spokesperson's gobs.

3 hours ago, pitufikken said:

Why is it so important for TAT to come with all these predictions? It makes no sense!

Actually it does make sense for them. They are spending billions of baht on promotions and advertising and travelling all over the world first class. They have to justify their existence .someone in power might wake up and realise their uselessness and stop all their unjustified expenditure

That's almost half of the record high in 2019.

No way Jose.

I predict 6 million which is still probably way too high at 500,000 per month, 16,000 per day.

3 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Yes! 18 million Indian billionaires, coming to Thailand for a 5-day holiday, but spending 1 trillion baht while here...

They might be drafted into the Army to fight the Chinese jumping over their border?

 

             I`ve got to hand it to TAT, they never fail to give me a good laugh,

             almost every day, for years! Keep it up, I need my daily laugh!

 

                    Cheers!

 

 

                        

 

"TAT predicts 18 million foreign tourists in 2022, spending 1 trillion baht"!

Has any prediction by the TAT ever been accurate??

Why do they do this, all the time?

It just makes them look like morons!!

 

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

OK, I do not believe it but hey lets run with it. 100k this month, 300k next month and 300k Jan to March, that leaves 16,7 million tourists in the last 9 months of the year , or 1.85 million a month.

 

Quite how he believe this figure - which will grow more every month with lack of arrivals - is mindboggling !

 

 yes, 500 seats NOT occupied ones

 

The TAT number lottery is funny. From April 2022, the numbers will work like a high-rise express lift. Especially when the months of April and May were traditionally always low.

 

From June to September the second wave of tourism traditionally comes when schools and universities in Europe close for the summer festivities and many take their annual vacation. Thailand then competes with the Mediterranean countries, which (currently) can be traveled with almost no time-consuming and expensive paperwork. And the low budget solo travelers, students, bagpackers, party people then also have 1, 2, 3 months time, but Thailand doesn't want them anymore. They will go again, like this year, to Mallorca, Ibiza, Bulgaria, Lloret de Mar, Portugal, Mykonos, Croatia, Balaton, Malta, Ischgl, Bodrum, etc. 

 

In October and November the traditional low season comes again with a lot of rain in Thailand. In December at the latest, when it gets cold at the northern hemisphere, the independent "snowbirds" come, who like to stay for several months and around Christmas and New Years also the young short-trip party people.

 

Nobody knows if and when China will let go of its hordes in 2022. Against this background, I think the 18 million is very excessive.

4 hours ago, Will B Good said:

No.....that is 500 seats on each flight.

Had that comment already to cut/paste.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

A day after a senior Chonburi tourism official slammed the government's opening of the country as smoke and mirrors and window dressing rhetoric the Tourism Authority of Thailand chief has hit back with his own brand of unbridled optimism.

You mean BS