Thailand to consider extending lockdown amid warning over rising cases

[Jonathan Fairfield]

A man rides his bike on an almost empty road which is usually crowded with people, as lockdown and travel restrictions are imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Bangkok, Thailand, July 12, 2021. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

Thailand's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will decide on Monday (Aug 16) whether the current restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19 need to be extended.

 

The restrictions, which are reviewed every 14 days, have been in place since August 1, after the government announced an extension to the lockdown in Bangkok and 28 other so-called 'dark red' provinces. 

 

The current restrictions in place include the closure of restaurants and non-essential businesses, interprovincial travel restrictions and a night time curfew. 

 

On Friday, CCSA spokesperson Dr Taweesilp Visanuyothin said that even if the existing restrictions remain in place and remain as effective as they are currently, Thailand could reach 45,000 cases and 500 deaths per day.

 

"The lockdown has been 20% effective but the infections continue to rise, projected to reach about 45,000 cases per day by the start of or mid September," spokesman Taweesin Wisanuyothin told a news conference.

 

But without any lockdown measures in place, Thailand would see up to 70,000 cases and 800 deaths per day.

 

If the lockdown measures remain in place but the effectiveness of the measures increases to 25%, as well as increasing the rate vaccinations are administered throughout the country, the number of daily infections will remain 20,000 cases with 200 deaths.

 

Dr Taweesilp called for everyone in Thailand to work together to help "flatten the curve".

 

He also urged everyone who is eligible to receive a vaccine to get one as soon as possible in order to help lessen the impact of their health should they become infected with the virus. 

 

On Monday, the CCSA will also consider relaxing some measures.

 

The most notable of these will be a request by the Thai Shopping Centre Association to allow banks, IT stores, general stores and shops selling household goods in shopping malls and department stores to open.

 

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Semi lockdowns seem to work when testing is decreased.  Antigen Test Kits also reduce the number of reported cases unless retested with a PCR swab. If they wanted the numbers to decrease they would need to have a rigid lockdown, but then what do they really want.  The public seems a little frantic right now which can be seen with the mass numbers queuing to be tested or waiting on a vaccine.

[ezzra]

11 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The restrictions, which are reviewed every 14 days

Reviewed my eye... they'll be extended again and again as long as there's no enough vax to do at least large portion of the economy Covid will continue to wreak havoc in this country...

[Scrotobike]

"He also urged everyone who is eligible to receive a vaccine"

A thought all people living in Thailand were eligible - oops slimed (slipped) out did it?

 

"If the lockdown measures remain in place but the effectiveness of the measures increases to 25%"

25% extra - a bigger sieve to carry water to put out the fire - leaky lockdown. 

 

"The most notable of these will be a request by the Thai Shopping Centre Association to allow banks, IT stores, general stores and shops selling household goods in shopping malls and department stores to open."

 

Wowzer bigger holes in the sieve

 

[cclub75]

16 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Reviewed my eye... they'll be extended again and again as long as there's no enough vax to do at least large portion of the economy Covid will continue to wreak havoc in this country...

 

At least, we have a "timeline"... 2 weeks per 2 weeks. ???? It helps.

 

The main problem is : even with 70 or 80 % of the population fully vaccinated... the virus could still be there.

 

Look at Israel (or Malta, or UAE etc.)

 

Massive (and early) vaccination program (started december 19) with Pfizer.

 

 

 

The idea that "vaccine = end of the problem = going back to normal" is deeply flawed.

 

Confronted to thoses facts (the vaccine do not prevent transmission and contamination, the herd immunity with a virus that mutates/recombines a lot and that has animal reservoirs is a fiction) countries start to think "differently" like Iceland or the UK... The virus will always be there, it's okay.

 

But I'm very concerned about Thailand... i'm not sure they can think out of the box... The "zero Covid" ideology is very strong in Asia and South-East Asia.

 

Add to this... the tense political situation (factorized by the economic and social situation)...

 

That's not a good cocktail recipe...

Edited August 15, 2021 by cclub75

[djayz]

28 minutes ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Dr Taweesilp called for everyone in Thailand to work together to help "flatten the curve".

How about everybody with a snout the the trough work together to order, import and distribute adequate quantities of effective vaccinations in a timely fashion? 

[mommysboy]

25% effective- might be considered an oxymoron.

[ikke1959]

and always urging people to get vaccinated as soon as possible.. But there are no vaccines available only Sinovac which is proven many times it is not effective and other vaccines are in the country not available.. Mor Prom doesn't work and I know from several people that they are waiting already for more than 4 months without any possibility to get an appointment, But on the other hand we also heard that friends of people in hospital are being vaccinated without any appointment.. There is some work to do....

[Sharp]

39 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Reviewed my eye... they'll be extended again and again as long as there's no enough vax to do at least large portion of the economy Covid will continue to wreak havoc in this country...

Yeah but look at Phuket even with mass vaccinations done still closing businesses, locking down, limited movement so what's the point!! Before you say it, if only the seriously ill were in hospital then there would be no crashing of the medical profession. 

[buick]

18 minutes ago, cclub75 said:

The idea that "vaccine = end of the problem = going back to normal" is deeply flawed.

i agree with the general idea of your statement but the vaccine does help curb the death problem.  and that is the biggest concern.  post the death chart along with the cases chart.  not everyone will take the vaccine so that is a problem.   i think the real flaw is assuming everyone will take the vaccine.  kind of like the assumption that everyone will obey the 'lockdown' orders, some do, some don't, some simply can't as they've got to earn money.  can't stay at home.

[Eric Loh]

Most likely some cautious relaxation of restrictions like the Malaysia model. Malaysia has the same dire statistic as regards to surging infections and deaths.
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/08/15/pm-barbers-hair-salons-among-11-types-of-businesses-allowed-to-re-open-in-p/1997767

[bkk6060]

Sadly, I don't see really much choice but to continue it.

[buick]

i try to avoid being critical of the government.  most governments have had trouble managing this pandemic.  but i really think the answer to the current situation does not lie with further lockdown restrictions.  the general public is doing the best they can.  the focus needs to be on expanding  capacity at the hospitals, field hospitals etc...  and better management at the testing and vaccine centers. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by buick

[Doctor Tom]

21 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

and always urging people to get vaccinated as soon as possible.. But there are no vaccines available only Sinovac which is proven many times it is not effective and other vaccines are in the country not available.. Mor Prom doesn't work and I know from several people that they are waiting already for more than 4 months without any possibility to get an appointment, But on the other hand we also heard that friends of people in hospital are being vaccinated without any appointment.. There is some work to do....

It's patchy, to say the least.  I registered with my local hospital, BHP,  4 weeks ago,  I received my first vaccine 6 days ago. AZ, with my second appointment for 2nd November.  So, as I say, its patchy.  

[Henryford]

The UK (with the same population as Thailand) has had 87 million vaccinations but still has 30,000 cases a day. So anyone hoping for a zero Covid situation (looking at you Australia and NZ) is going to be seriously disappointed.

[internationalism]

"Thailand's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) will decide on Monday (Aug 16) whether the current restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19 need to be extended.

... On Monday, the CCSA will also consider relaxing some measures."

the last sentence of this article contradicts the title and the first sentense.

It looks like more burden on small businesses, including street markets, but allowing on partial opening of shopping centres

[internationalism]

22 minutes ago, Henryford said:

The UK (with the same population as Thailand) has had 87 million vaccinations but still has 30,000 cases a day. So anyone hoping for a zero Covid situation (looking at you Australia and NZ) is going to be seriously disappointed.

the difference is, that the UK hasn't got any lockdown, dark red zones with overflowing hospitals - as thailand does. 

Now from 16.08 even masks and distancing are not obligatory in England. Everything is opened.

 

It's difficult to compare the country with very limited vaccination drive, as thailand is now, to countries with the highest one. I think the UK secured some 500mln doses, so now is able to donate some less performing/expiring to thailand and the other countries. Thailand has ordered only 110mln, but their vax program is only taking off now 

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52530518

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by internationalism

[DaveSamutP]

1 hour ago, cclub75 said:

 

At least, we have a "timeline"... 2 weeks per 2 weeks. ???? It helps.

 

The main problem is : even with 70 or 80 % of the population fully vaccinated... the virus could still be there.

 

Look at Israel (or Malta, or UAE etc.)

 

Massive (and early) vaccination program (started december 19) with Pfizer.

 

 

 

The idea that "vaccine = end of the problem = going back to normal" is deeply flawed.

 

Confronted to thoses facts (the vaccine do not prevent transmission and contamination, the herd immunity with a virus that mutates/recombines a lot and that has animal reservoirs is a fiction) countries start to think "differently" like Iceland or the UK... The virus will always be there, it's okay.

 

But I'm very concerned about Thailand... i'm not sure they can think out of the box... The "zero Covid" ideology is very strong in Asia and South-East Asia.

 

Add to this... the tense political situation (factorized by the economic and social situation)...

 

That's not a good cocktail recipe...

No surprise Thailand cannot cope. They are copying different pieces of strategy from China and otters. 

 

I agree with what you wrote. Zero Covid is probably not a good strategy. Herd immunity is probably only a myth. The disease does still transmit even after vaccination. 

 

Endemic is probably a more reasonable strategy. 

 

As Singapore is doing 

 

[fredscats]

Carry on regardless,live with it...if ill treat,if not take precautions

[cnx101]

43 minutes ago, buick said:

i agree with the general idea of your statement but the vaccine does help curb the death problem.  and that is the biggest concern.  post the death chart along with the cases chart.  not everyone will take the vaccine so that is a problem.   i think the real flaw is assuming everyone will take the vaccine.  kind of like the assumption that everyone will obey the 'lockdown' orders, some do, some don't, some simply can't as they've got to earn money.  can't stay at home.

Maybe they should in the future make to enter certain places and facilities show vaccination paper, maybe people will think again about getting vaccinated.

 

 

[BE88]

But you keep asking the whole country until the whole country explodes then the covid will be the least of the problems same now Pattaya

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattayas-new-pastime-looking-for-free-food-367777

[Sharp]

12 minutes ago, internationalism said:

the difference is, that the UK hasn't got any lockdown, dark red zones with overflowing hospitals - as thailand does. 

Now from 16.08 even masks and distancing are not obligatory in England. Everything is opened.

 

It's difficult to compare the country with very limited vaccination drive, as thailand is now, to countries with the highest one. I think the UK secured some 500mln doses, so now is able to donate some less performing/expiring to thailand and the other countries. Thailand has ordered only 110mln, but their vax program is only taking off now 

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52530518

 

The UK has always played the Health crisis BS...............Even before Covid!.....

[wasabi]

The failed administration should just permanently lock it down since they have no clue how to mount a logical response to the pandemic.

[Jingthing]

I would be shocked if it isn't extended.

Two months reviews may be more realistic than two weeks ones.

[jvs]

Inter provincial travel restrictions?I see check points but that"s it.

Last week a guest house in Hua-hin was still inviting people from Bangkok to come and stay there

and this was on Facebook.

A lot of talk but again,no enforcement.

A further lock down would mean more police on the streets of Bangkok,if you know what i mean.

[fredscats]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I would be shocked if it isn't extended.

Two months reviews may be more realistic than two weeks ones.

Cannot keep locking down,what is left when all the lockdowns finish?  nothing to start from,just live with it

[CWMcMurray]

Think a lot of people miss the point … if the vaccines are available for everyone who wants one to get one, it no longer matters if people get COVID or not.

As once people have the vaccines it helps to avoid hospitalization and death. 
so who cares if you get COVID if it just means you are either have no symptoms or if only mild systems 

the key is getting more vaccines 

[fredscats]

12 minutes ago, BE88 said:

But you keep asking the whole country until the whole country explodes then the covid will be the least of the problems same now Pattaya

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattayas-new-pastime-looking-for-free-food-367777

This is a joke,a handful of sticky rice,small packet of fish sauce,three eggs,small bottle of water ,thats it...its free,just a smallish snack

[Scheduler]

I believe the current Delta surge in America is an example of how quickly unvaccinated people are contracting the Delta variant.  I believe, based on the predominant types of vaccines being applied, we are in for a very rough and dangerous ride.

 

[rumak]

14 minutes ago, DaveSamutP said:

No surprise Thailand cannot cope. They are copying different pieces of strategy from China and otters. 

not to forget the close cousins of otters......... weasels